Physical Address
304 North Cardinal St.
Dorchester Center, MA 02124
Hedera is quietly preparing for a move that traders have been waiting months to see. After repeated failed bounces, HBAR price action, ETF demand and spot flows are finally starting to align. What makes this moment different is not only the paper model, but the timing.
The same level that killed previous demonstrations is back in focus. This time, it is tested alongside the strongest demand for ETFs that Hedera has seen in 2026.
Sponsored
Sponsored
Hedera forms a W base as EMA resistance returns
Form a hydra A clear W pattern, also known as a double bottom, is on the daily chart. This structure appears when the price tests the same support twice and holds, which indicates that the sellers are losing momentum. In the case of Hedera, the level of $0.102 has now served as a floor on several occasions, attracting buyers every time the price revisits.
From this base, the price tried to turn higher towards the $0.135 area, which acts as the neck of the W pattern. If the neckline breaks, the structure predicts a potential move of 31%, which sets the upside targets near the $0.176 area.
Want more icon insights like these? Subscribe to publisher Harsh Notaria’s Crypto newsletter here.
But here, previous meetings have failed.
The entire recovery earlier this year stalled because Hedera could not recover its key exponential moving averages (EMA). EMA gives more weight to recent price movement and helps traders determine whether the movement is corrective or a change in trend. In early January, Hydra retraced the 20-day EMA, leading to short rallies ranging from 8% to 16%. Those moves quickly faded as the price could not stay above the 50-day moving average.
The same barrier is now located directly in the path of the neck in a W pattern. This means that the structure and the moving average are converging at the same point. A break above $0.135 would only complete the W pattern. It was also the first clean recovery of the 50-day EMA in weeks.
Sponsored
Sponsored
That is why this setting is more important than the previous attempts. That is why underground demand is now crucial.
ETF demand and spot demand increase together as supply tightens
Hedera announced recently About the strongest week of ETF inflows of 2026. In the week ending January 16, net inflows reached about $1.46 million, the highest weekly this year. This is important because the demand for index funds represents a slower and more stable capital that tends to absorb supply during consolidation phases rather than chasing breakouts.
This strength in ETFs is now being reflected in the spot market.
Sponsored
Sponsored
Between January 18 and January 19, net spot flows from Hedera increased from approximately $882,000 to $2.22 million. This represents a jump of more than 150% in one day, indicating that buyers are withdrawing tokens from exchanges rather than preparing to sell them.
The correspondence between the inflows of the index fund and the outflows spot is important. This time, the question appears before the encounter, not after.
The next data point will be crucial. The week of current index funds closes on January 23. If the inflows remain positive until the end of the week, confirming that the demand for institutional style is still growing. If the flows stop, this indicates that buyers are still cautious.
This uncertainty makes the upcoming HBAR price reaction particularly important.
Sponsored
Sponsored
An HBAR price level defines a breakthrough
The momentum indicators are quietly supporting the bullish position. Between December 31 and January 19, it is tested Hedera price A lower low is forming while the RSI is about to record a higher low. The RSI measures the strength of recent gains versus losses, and this divergence usually indicates weak selling pressure.
The bullish fork signal is still conditional.
While the current Hydra candle remains above $0.102, the divergence remains valid and supports the idea of ​​a move higher. A sustained break below $0.102 will invalidate both the current divergence and the W pattern, reopening downside risks.
If the price rises, the key test is not the rebound itself, but how far it goes. A retracement to the $0.118 area would constitute a retracement of the 20-day EMA, which is… Hedera managed to get it at first. The real turnaround happens just above $0.127, where the 50-day EMA resides. Crossing this level will turn the previous resistance into support and open the door for a move towards $0.135, followed by the expected areas of $0.152 and $0.176.
Hadera has spent weeks building a base as demand gradually improves. The scheme is ready. The flows are improving. Now everything has come down to a level that has stopped every rally so far – the 50-day EMA line.
