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The price of HBAR is trying to stabilize, but the rebound is losing steam. The token is up 7% since January 20, but is still down about 8% in the last seven days. More importantly, the structure supporting a bullish breakout is beginning to weaken beneath the surface.
The W-shaped recovery pattern is still in place. But capital flows, sentiment and whale behavior are no longer well aligned for a sustained clean rally.
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Weak capital flows raise initial doubts about the breakout structure
The price remains HBAR Trade in a W pattern on the daily chart. This pattern forms when the price enters two similar lows, with buyers appearing to enter twice at the same level. The breakout theory can be tested if the HBAR price breaks the neck above $0.135.
The problem is what happens under this model.
Chaikin Fund Flow (CMF) is down. The CMF tracks whether large funds (institutions, ETFs and whales) are flowing into or out of an asset using price and volume. During the bounce, the CMF briefly moves above zero, showing new flows. That signal is now gone.
The CMF indicator fell below zero and pressed the rising trend line that has been in place since the end of December. This indicates that capital has started to leave Hedera, although the price has not yet crossed the support.
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The behavior of the whale reinforces this caution. All the great groups of angels held on to their possessions, but did not add much value during the fall. When whales expect a breach to occur, they usually accumulate in weakness.
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His hesitation suggests uncertainty more than confidence. Also, if the CMF breaks the trend line, the next capital flow could be from the whales.
Buy low holds $0.102, but sentiment has collapsed sharply
Despite the weak capital inflows, the price of HBAR has not yet collapsed. The reason is the debt purchase.
The Money Flow Index (MFI), which is often a proxy for low buying, has been trending higher while the price has continued to fall since late December. MFI measures buying and selling pressure using price and volume. This bullish divergence shows that buyers are entering dips rather than exiting in panic. This behavior explains why the $0.102 support level persists repeatedly.
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But buying the dip alone cannot sustain a breakthrough if confidence fades. Especially when you don’t buy Hydera whales Those soaks.
Market sentiment has deteriorated significantly. Since January 19, positive sentiment has fallen from about 29 to about 1.5, a drop of more than 94% in a few days, a monthly low.
This is important because the sentiment showed its impact on the price earlier in the month. Between January 6 and January 12, positive sentiment fell from about 20.8 to about 10.4. During the same period, the price of HBAR fell from about $0.132 to $0.114, a decrease of about 14%.
The current emotional breakdown is much more severe than the previous episode. If the relationship persists, price pressure may increase rapidly once dip buyers are removed, or when external consumer fund flows offset their contribution. Also, indifferent whales can use this feeling as a reason to let go of the emotion.
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HBAR price levels that determine whether the story will break or stand
Everything now depends on a small scale.
Until then HBAR price Holding $0.102 at the end of each day, the W pattern remains technically valid. Any decisive break below this level will invalidate the structure and reveal a decline towards $0.094 earlier. If selling accelerates, $0.073 becomes a realistic downside target.
On the positive side, an escape situation requires a change in behavior. The CMF should resume the zero line, the sentiment should stabilize, and the price should recover the area of ​​$0.118 to $0.124. Without these changes, the neckline of $0.135 remains elusive, as is the hope of achieving 31%.
Until now, the price of HBAR remains stable. But the hacking story is weakening. If capital flows continue and sentiment remains this fragile, then the $0.102 level will cease to be support and begin to become a final test.
