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The HBAR price has rebounded nearly 26% from its November 21 low near $0.12. The price is up about 4% in the last 24 hours, which looks like a good short-term rebound.
But the recovery does not seem convincing. The only bullish formation on the chart is weakening quickly, and the indicators are showing increasing weakness instead of increasing support.
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The cup and handle configuration weakens as the power of the bull decreases
The only bullish case for HBAR in the short term It is located on the 4 o’clock card. Between November 20 and November 23, the price created a cup and handle pattern. The cup and handle form a popular bullish formation where the price drops and then rises (the cup) before forming a small rebound (the handle). A breakout occurs only when the price closes above the top of the previous handle.
For HBAR, the discovery level is located around $0.147.
A clean break above $0.158 breaks the cup itself and activates the expected formation target near $0.194. The invalidation of this formation is found below $0.143.
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But the problem is simple.
The Bulls and Bears Index (BBP), which compares the strength of the market against the average price, has weakened since November 23. BBP is still positive, but it is a downward trend, which means that buyers are losing control at the moment when the pattern needs momentum to break out.
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This is normal during freezing, however HBAR loses strength very quickly. If the price is below $0.143, the handle will break. When this happens, the cup and handle configuration collapses, and the single upward trigger disappears.
The influx of large funds is not enough
This weakness is also visible on the daily chart. HBAR is still trading in a declining channel. A descending channel is formed when the highs and lows fall in a straight and parallel path. The price touched the lower band of this channel on November 21 and rebounded by about 27%, but the move quickly faded.
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) explains why. CMF measures whether there is a significant flow of money into or out of a currency token. It has been below its trend line since early November and has not crossed above zero. Big money won’t support a rebound. A similar failure of the CMF on November 8-10 also led to a decrease in the price of HBAR.
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Until the CMF breaks its trend line and moves above zero, any breakout is just a reaction and not a trend change. Therefore, even a broken handle on the 4 o’clock frame is vulnerable to failure.
HBAR Price Levels: The rebound remains weak unless major breakouts occur
The daily HBAR price action confirms the same weakness.
To continue growing, Habbar must break:
- $0.169 – Resistance from the 0.618% retracement and the upper line of the descending channel.
- $0.182 – the strongest daily resistance
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However, these levels are in play if the main cup and handle levels: $0.147 and $0.158 are broken first.
None of these breakouts seem likely, unless the CMF turns positive and the bulls regain strength on the 4-hour frame.
The downside remains clearer than the upside. The daily close below $0.140 reveals $0.122, the low on November 21, and the most important support on the chart. A drop below $0.140 will also invalidate the cup and handle setup from earlier.
This is another important detail: the lower line of the channel channel has only two clean touch points, which makes it structurally weaker. This means that it won’t take much effort to break below it if the selling pressure increases again.
To invalidate the bearish formation, HBAR must recover $0.169 first and then $0.182. A move above these levels turns the structure and opens the way towards $0.198, but this requires strong bull power and a full CMF recovery.
