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Note that the price of Monero has been under pressure since mid-January, even when part of the cryptocurrency market tried to stabilize. After falling sharply until the end of January, the price of XMR found support near $276 on February 6 and has since gone slightly higher.
This recovery seemed fragile. Chart patterns, weak buy-on-the-dip and mixed sentiment data indicated that Monero could be headed for another major decline.
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Collapse of the bear flag pattern and weak buying on the dip put XMR under pressure
Since January 14, Monero has been exchanged Inside a bearish structure looks like a bear flag pattern. A bear flag refers to a short period of consolidation that forms after a sharp decline (ended on February 6 for the XMR price) and often indicates a possible continuation of the downward trend.
After falling more than 60% from its peak in January, XMR is moving sideways and slightly upwards in this flag. However, on February 12, the price began to break below the lower limit, indicating a possible breakdown. This bearish finding is confirmed at press time, unless some buyers in the next few hours may push XMR into the flag.
Momentum data showed that dip buyers are still present, but their strength remains limited. A useful indicator here is the Liquidity Flow Index (MFI). The IMF tracks buying and selling pressure through a combination of price and volume, making it useful for identifying buying strength on dips.
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Since February 1st, Monero’s MFI has trended higher (minimum higher) while XMR has been moving horizontally and lower. This suggests that some investors are buying on dips. But the IMF could not break the upper trend line or form a clear upper structure. This means that there is a buying interest, but it is not strong enough to reverse the weakness of the trend.
Data on stock market flows supported this view. After three days of light entry, Monero recorded again on February 12, worth about $372,000 in cash. XMR is out From the bags. Usually a negative net flow indicates high buying pressure.
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This shows that some investors are still buying. Simply put, buyers are active on the dips, but only weakly.
An increase in social interest does not compensate for a decrease in positive morale
Social media data shows another important weakness in Monero’s current setup.
In the last few days, it started Monero social dominance By height. Social dominance measures the amount of attention a coin receives in comparison to the overall cryptocurrency market. When it grows, it means more people are talking about the asset.
Between February 11th and February 12th, social dominance increased from approximately 0.046% to 0.066%. This shows that interest in Monero is starting to pick up a bit after weeks of decline. Historically, increases in social activity have sometimes preceded short-term rebounds in prices.
For example, on January 12, the social dominance jumped close to 0.92%. In two days, Monero increased by 25%. A similar pattern emerged on January 18, when social interest rose before another brief price spike. However, the current increase in social dominance is much weaker than those in previous cases. It remains well below the February peak near 0.106 and well below the key January high.
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More importantly, positive sentiment moves in the opposite direction. Positive sentiment measures the extent of optimism in social media discussions compared to neutrality or negativity. Since February 9th, Monero’s positive sentiment score has dropped dramatically from around 27.26 to just 7.21, a 74% drop. This is a big decline.
In January, when positive sentiment jumped above 100, strong demonstrations followed. Today, morals are collapsing even as social debate increases. This indicates that people are talking about Monero, but not with confidence or optimism. Much of the discussion seems to be driven by anxiety, speculation and downside risks. Such a weak emotional background makes it difficult for any recovery in the price of Monero to maintain momentum.
Monero price levels that determine the next stage
Now focus on XMR price levels more than narratives due to technical weakness and weak demand. On the downside, the most important resistance is located near $361, as will be discussed at the end of this section.
This level represents the center of the bear flag structure. A sustained move above $361 indicates that buyers are taking back control and that the decline may be delayed, but not invalidated. Without a recovery above this area, downside risks remain dominant.
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The Bulls-Bears Strength Index shows a small positive signal. This metric compares buying power versus selling pressure to show which side is in control. Recently, the seller’s pressure began to weaken even when the price is below the key support. This indicates that sellers are losing some momentum.
If buying momentum continues as downward pressure fades, buyers may delay the decline and try to push XMR to rise above again $361.
On the upside, the first major support is near $308. This level has acted as a short-term plan several times in the last few days. Below $308, the next major support is near $276, which was the February low.
If both levels fail, the bear flag forecast indicates the area of ​​$135. This target almost reflects the entire movement of the previous decline and represents the next major historical support zone.
