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Ahead of schedule, Metaculus now predicts that quantum computers may be able to factorize the RSA number using Shor’s algorithm by 2034. Almost 20 years ahead of the previous forecast in 2052.
These rapid developments raise urgent concerns for the cryptocurrency and blockchain industry, which relies on modern cryptography to ensure security and trust.
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Advances in quantum computing are shortening the “Q-day” timeline.
“Quantum Day” defines the moment when quantum computing can break widely used encryption systems. New projections suggest that this discovery could come in the next decade.
Metaculus, a forecasting platform that tracks scientific progress, has a very advanced estimate for the date when quantum computers using Shor’s algorithm will be able to solve the RSA number.
The change from 2052 to 2034 can be attributed to… Quantum developmentsAdvances in error correction, and increased investment in quantum research. This poses risks for Security of financial systemsgovernment communications, and blocked networks around the world, including major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC).
Haseeb Qureshi, Managing Partner of Dragonfly, said: This gives us an average estimate of about 10 years before contemporary public cryptography is decisively broken. (However, it could happen faster! It is not a point estimate, but a distribution, fuzzy in both negative and positive sides.)“
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In a recent post, Qureshi emphasized that successfully executing Shor’s algorithm, a quantum algorithm that can theoretically break classical encryption, is not equivalent to cracking the 256-bit elliptic arc key used in modern blockchain networks. He added that,
“You could use Shor’s algorithm to factor a number—that would be impressive—but that would require significant expansion and engineering to make a number with hundreds of digits.”
However, Qureshi described the trend as “important to take seriously”, while stressing that the threat is far from imminent. Even if quantitative progress continues ahead of schedule, he argues that there is still a window of years to coordinate an industry response.
According to Qureshi, all blockchain networks will eventually need to move to post-quantum cryptography (PQC). This is a large-scale development that will require extensive coordination between networks, developers and users. It is estimated that an orderly transition will take at least four years, which highlights the urgent need to start the planning process.
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Experts warn that a “Q quantum day” could arrive as early as 2028
However, cryptocurrency analyst Nick Carter argues that Q Day could come soon, pointing to a window between 2028 and 2033.
He eats too Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin These concerns at the DefConnect conference. He warned that elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) may be in danger sooner than the industry thought.
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Buterin suggested that quantum computers may become powerful enough to undermine Ethereum’s security model even before the 2028 US presidential election.
Project warning Quantum doomsday clock It is also expected that quantum machines will be able to break current encryption by March 2028 Many other experts Similar risks will emerge in the coming years.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency sector has taken off In facing the quantum threat. Researchers are working on developing quantum-resistant signature schemes and planning transmission paths.
As quantum computing accelerates, the cryptocurrency community is racing uphill. Kew Day could come as early as 2028 or as late as 2034.
However, the threat means that post-quantum security must now take center stage. The coming years will show whether the industry can move fast enough to keep up with quantum advances.
