Former Goldman Sachs Expert Predicts Bitcoin Will Rise to $140,000 – Here’s Why

According to Raful Pal, a former Goldman Sachs executive and macro investor, the answer depends less on sentiment and more on liquidity.

Raful Pal says the signals are starting to align in a way that historically precedes sudden upward moves.

Bitcoin recovery to reach $140,000 much earlier than the market expects?

Raful Pal confirms that Bitcoin is currently trading at a “deep discount” compared to global liquidity conditions. In previous cycles, similar gaps between liquidity and price expansion were not resolved gradually, but rather closed violently.

Raful Pal suggested that if that gap closes, Bitcoin will not grow gradually, but rather jump to a higher scale.

PAL’s hypothesis focuses on a potential liquidity inflection point in the first quarter of 2026. Several macro forces are converging at once.

Start with the changes in banking regulations, especially the amendments to the Enhanced Additional Leverage Ratio (ESLR). According to Pal, this may allow banks to absorb more Government debt Without limiting their budgets.

This effectively gives the US Treasury more flexibility in financing the deficit, increasing liquidity throughout the system.

Attention is also focused on the dynamics of the General Treasury Account (TGA). Historically, when TGA funds are withdrawn, liquidity flows quickly into the markets. Pal believes the process is likely to accelerate.

A weak US dollar, which is often a sign of easier financial conditions, and the expansion of liquidity from China’s balance sheet, strengthens the background of support for risk assets.

Liquidity is actually improving faster than market prices, says Pal. His rough estimate? If Bitcoin realigns with the prevailing liquidity conditions, the price will be closer to $140,000.

Raful Pal said based on liquidity patterns, Bitcoin should be closer to $140,000 if historical relationships hold.

Reaching the $140,000 level represents a 106% increase in Bitcoin’s price from current levels.

Confirm the business cycle

Pal also points to future indicators related to the business cycle, especially the Institute of Supply Management (ISM). According to his theoretical framework, Financial conditions drive the ISM index About nine months, with global liquidity following soon after.

The data it tracks suggests that the ISM may strengthen significantly this year, indicating a better growth environment. The data listed below all contribute to an increase in confidence and lending activity.

• Fiscal stimulus
• Tax incentives for investment in fixed assets
• Capital expenditure on data centers and energy infrastructure, and
• Possibility of relief in mortgage rates

If growth expectations increase as liquidity expands, Bitcoin and other high-beta assets have historically outperformed.

Burden October 10

However, despite these improving conditions, Bitcoin’s performance continued to lag. Pal attributes that separation to Elimination round on October 10tha structural event that is believed to have damaged the structural market system.

Unlike the sharp drop in traditional stocks, cryptocurrencies lack regulatory safeguards that void trades. During the liquidation, they coincided Forced reduction of leverage With disruptions to exchanges’ APIs, temporarily taking out market makers and liquidity providers. Prices have fallen far beyond what the fundamentals justify.

Pal speculates that exchanges could step in to absorb forced selling, then liquidate positions algorithmically during times of peak liquidity.

And with the spread Crowd selling strategies for purchasing contracts Around the price of $100,000, often associated with performance products, the result was that the upward trend continued to be suppressed.

However, it is believed that this pressure will now disappear.

“Banana Zone” setup.

Pal describes the final acceleration phase in the cryptocurrency cycle as the “Banana Zone” – which is Non-linear repression Driven by liquidity, improved growth and renewed capital flows.

Before this phase begins, markets typically digest previous volatility and remove structural resistance levels. He sees the $100,000 area as not only psychological, but also structural. As long-term selling pressure builds and positions remain cautious, the setting for an upward shock increases.

Pal believes that liquidity drives the price. When the consensus becomes optimistic, the movement can already begin.

If global refinancing pressures force more liquidity into the system, Bitcoin, which he described as a “global liquidity sponge,” can respond quickly.

If the spread between liquidity and price closes, $140,000 may not be an unlikely goal, but it may just be the direction the market is still going.