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The Fed’s new minutes from the October 28-29 meeting create new uncertainty in monetary policy expectations for December, exacerbating volatility in stock, bond and Bitcoin markets.
The notes reflect economic data, but only those available at the time of the meeting, and the change in language in the document has become a new focal point for analysts interpreting the Fed’s next move.
Fed meeting minutes reveal slim majority against a December interest rate cut
Federal description “a lot” Officials said they saw a December rate cut as “probably inappropriate,” while “many” people said a cut “could be appropriate.”
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In the language of Fed followers, hierarchy is important. “some” > “many”, and “many” trumps both. This suggests that a narrow majority was opposed to the December rate cut at the time of the meeting.
The observations also indicated the emergence of pressure points in the financial markets:
- repo volatility,
- The decrease in the use of ON RRP, and
- The reserves are stretching towards scarcity.
This combination historically precedes End of quantitative easing (QT). Therefore, the belief is that the Fed may be closer than expected End the budget cuts.
Prior to this release, The markets had removed the risks Indeed, the price of Bitcoin fell below $89,000 to its lowest level in 7 months. The negative sentiment spread across traditional trading stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Big traders say the real story is the exact nature of the split at the Fed. Feedback suggests that there is no definitive consensus, suggesting that December has become one of the toughest policy decisions since the Fed began to address inflation.
Some officials stressed that inflation risks remain high; While others indicated a cooling in business conditions and a decrease in demand. Armed with the latest statements after the meeting, both sides included CPI weakerstable unemployment claims, and refreshing business activities, December can swing on the following paper releases.
The market adapts to a scenario of strengthening liquidity, increasing political uncertainty, andBitcoin is in a structurally fragile zone So that buyers take the initiative.
If the Fed chooses to pause in December, markets may need to prepare for a longer-than-expected and deeper decline ahead.
