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Bitcoin is currently experiencing the first stages of a bear market, based on several indicators on the chain and in the market. This trend is expected to continue until 2026, with prices favored to decline rather than new historical highs.
Julio Moreno, head of research at Cryptoquant, attributed weak demand as the main reason for this prediction, during a conversation with BeInCrypto.
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The chain’s data confirms the decline of the market
While many investors are still debating whether… A broader bear market in cryptocurrencies is comingMoreno said that Bitcoin It entered a bear market From November 2025.
Moreno said in a podcast episode with BeInCrypto that almost all indicators on the chain or in the market confirm that we are in a bear market in its early stages.
According to him, this is just the beginning. Prices are expected to continue the downward trend in the coming months.
Moreno added that the question is how long this situation will last or how far prices can fall, but as it is, he does not expect new historical highs.
Moreno’s pessimistic forecast was based not only on the price movement, but also on the fundamentals that he believes indicate continued weakness in the future.
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Bitcoin’s order engine is starting to break down
In recent months, Bitcoin has seen a structural contraction in demand. To pursue this, Cryptoquant relied on… Follow the flows in exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
During the period between 2024 and 2025, the demand for Bitcoin was supported by several strong and tangible factors. When Bitcoin spot ETFs were first launched in the United States, the move led to sustained institutional inflows and a sharp acceleration in demand.
Regulatory support in the United States under President Donald Trump has also increased risk appetite.
But this Demand is currently declining.
Moreno said index funds have been net sellers of Bitcoin since at least early November. “They were buying aggressively, then there was a slowdown, and now they’re not buying, they’re selling,” he added.
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This lack of demand manifests itself in other ways as well.
Attention is focused on the risks of forced sales
The cryptocurrency market saw last year Increasing corporate adoption of Bitcoin As a wardrobe asset.
Strategy (formerly known as MicroStrategy) led this wave, followed by companies such as Metaplant, TwentyOne Capital, and Mara Holdings, which followed the same accumulation strategy.
however, This buying wave has subsided.
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Moreno told BeInCrypto that almost all Bitcoin treasury companies, except for MicroStrategy, have stopped buying, and that if prices continue to fall, there is a greater risk that we will see some companies forced to sell their holdings.
represents this Risk of forced sale Exactly what could be a potential accelerating factor for price fluctuations.
According to Moreno, the price of Bitcoin could reach a minimum of $56,000.
Despite the downside risks, Moreno stressed that the long-term outlook for Bitcoin will ultimately depend on demand to recover.
The moment demand stops decreasing and starts to increase again, that’s when the structure of the market changes, Moreno said.
Wait for this change to appear on the chain, as the most productive approach to the market is to be cautious.
