Ethereum, Solana Challenges the Myth of Tier-1 – Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer Sees Forecasting Markets Changing Everything

The idea that blockchain space has become a commodity may be premature, according to Bitwise IT director Matt Hogan, who argues that the behavior of institutions tells a very different story.

Hogan responded to what he described as “a growing view in the cryptocurrency world that Tier 1 blockchain space is a commodity.

The institutional capital of the top-tier on the chain combines with the prediction markets on the chain to define the information advantage

Second To the executive of BitwiseIf the infrastructure was truly marketed, capital and development would be distributed evenly across the chains.

Instead, most of the institution building is done on a very small number of chains (Ethereum, Solana, etc.).

“…there is simply no interest in building on the 20th largest L1 line, “fare.

Networks like Ethereum and Solana In the domain of mind, liquidity and developer activity, even as the new Tier 1 competes aggressively on fees and throughput. Hogan offered a simpler explanation for today’s low-fee environment.

“Tier-tier companies are building more bandwidth than the market can currently use, so rates are at an all-time low.”

However, he warned that the current balance may not last.

“The real question is what happens when demand expands as stablecoins/tokenization/DeFi grow into the trillions,” he wrote. “I’m not sure we know the answer yet.”

If blockchain-based financial infrastructure expands to support trillions of dollars of… Tokenized assets And the establishment on the chain, today’s reserve capacity can narrow quickly. Such an outcome could reduce the economics of pioneering networks.

Forecast markets as “an official FD for the Internet age,” as Hogan argues

In addition to infrastructure, Hogan expressed his opinion on another controversial topic: Insider trading concerns related to cryptocurrency-based prediction markets.

“The concern of insider trading on the prediction markets are basically the opposite,” books. “Forecast markets are an extension of the Reg FD market, putting us all on a level playing field.”

Regulatory Fair Disclosure (Reg FD) is designed to prevent the selective disclosure of material information to preferred investors.

Hogan argues that Forecast markets This principle expands from public price probabilities around major events.

Consider how hedge funds have historically extracted “alpha” during crucial legislative moments in Washington, DC, where they have hired lobbyists and consultants to gather private intelligence from Capitol Hill.

The view I take here is that powerful investors have always had a huge advantage.

I was thinking about this over the weekend when I was thinking about how many times I look at the Polymarket for the passage of the Clarity Act.

In the past, when there was major legislation in DC that would have…

– Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) February 22, 2026

However, individual investors can Today draw the odds live On platforms like PolyMarket, including markets linked to the potential passage of legislation like the Clarity Act.

“For liquid markets, those odds are probably as good or better than anything the political lobby can provide. It’s a more level playing field,” Hogan said.

He acknowledged that risks remain, noting the need to closely monitor insider trading in the prediction markets. However, he stressed that the balance of the impact is positive and largely equal.

So there are two arguments here:

• Both L1 languages ​​are commodities and
• Both forecast markets allow unfair advantages

Both debates are about how power is distributed in financial systems. According to Matt Hogan, the institutional focus on higher end chains reflects economic reality rather than becoming purely commoditized.

At the same time, open prediction markets represent a rare case in which information asymmetry can be reduced.