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Ethereum is trying to stabilize after weeks of heavy selling. The price remains firm near the $1,950 area, up about 6% from its recent low. Meanwhile, the biggest Ethereum whales have started to accumulate aggressively.
But sellers and traders of short-term derivatives remain cautious, creating a growing conflict over what’s to come.
Ethereum’s biggest whales pile up as bullish divergence remains intact
The data series shows that the largest Holders of Ethereum They are looking for a rebound. Since February 9th, addresses holding between 1 million and 10 million ETH have increased from about 5.17 million ETH to about 6.27 million ETH. This adds up to over 1.1 million ETH, worth almost $2 billion at current prices.
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This accumulation is in line with a bullish technical signal on the 12-hour chart.
Between January 25 and February 12, register Ethereum price The low is a lower high, while the relative strength index, or RSI, forms a higher low. The RSI measures momentum by comparing recent gains and losses. When the price is falling, but the RSI is rising, this often indicates weak selling pressure.
This bullish fork indicates that the momentum of the downward strike has broken.
The structure remains valid until Ethereum remains above $1,890, where the same signal also appeared on February 11 and remains stable. A failure below this level will temporarily invalidate the divergence and weaken the rebound.
For now, the whales seem to be betting that this support will last.
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Are they selling short-term holdouts?
While large investors are piling up, short holders are behaving very differently.
The age category of coins from 7 to 30 days saw a significant increase. Since February 9 (the same time the whales began to collect), that number has risen from about 14,000 to nearly 107,000, an increase of more than 660%. This indicator tracks the number of newly acquired coins that have been transferred. High values ​​usually indicate profit and distribution potential.
In simple terms, short-term traders are those who exit positions. This model also appeared before February. On February 5, there was a peak in short-term currency activity near $2,140. in a day, Ethereum has fallen By about 13%.
These records show how aggressive selling by this group can quickly reverse moves. While short-term holders remain active sellers, bullish moves are likely to meet resistance.
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Derived data shows a significant bearish concentration
Derivatives markets reinforce this cautious outlook. The current settlement date shows about $3.06 billion in short positions versus only about $755 million in long leverage. This creates a significant bearish imbalance, with almost 80% of the market betting on the short side.
On the one hand, this arrangement creates fuel for the potential for a short streak if prices rise. On the other hand, it shows that most traders have always anticipated weaker. This keeps momentum low, but holds out hope for a rebound if whale buying pushes prices higher, even slightly, beyond the big groups.
On-chain cost base data helps explain why Ethereum has struggled to rally higher. About $1,980 was purchased, about 1.58% of the circulating supply. Near $2,020, another 1.23% of the supply is at break-even. These areas represent large groups of holders waiting to exit without losses.
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When the price approaches these levels, selling pressure increases as investors attempt to recoup capital. This has repeatedly led to recent high bounces. Only a strong leveraged move or short squeeze will be strong enough to overcome these two accumulations of supply.
Until then, these areas remain major obstacles.
Key Ethereum price levels to track now
With buying whales and sellers resisting, the levels become… Ethereum prices Now more important than narratives.
On the upside, the first major resistance is near $2,010. A 12-hour clean close above this level will increase the probability of short liquidation. It is located near the main supply cluster.
If this happens, Ethereum can target $2,140 next, which is a strong resistance zone that includes several touch points. It is also close to current levels of about 10%. On the downside, $1,890 remains the decisive support. A break below this level will invalidate the bullish divergence and indicate renewed bearish pressure. Below that, the next major support is near $1,740.
As long as Ethereum stays above $1,890 and continues to test $2,010, the bounce structure remains the same. A sustained failure below the support level will nullify the current recovery attempt.
