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Although the market recovery in February is still fragile, it has revealed several remarkable signs. These signals have led analysts to predict that an altcoin season could emerge in March.
However, investor sentiment remains cautious, as capital also favors Bitcoin over altcoins, which could prevent a broader market recovery.
Hope returns to the altcoin market in March
Cryptoquant data shows that only about 5% of altcoins listed on Binance are trading above the 200-day simple moving average (200-day SMA). This means that 95% is still below this level, which reflects the current poor performance of altcoins.
Historical patterns provide a glimmer of hope. In the last two years, this ratio has typically been below 15% for a maximum of five months before rising again. This model appears during June to October 2024, and again from February to June 2025.
The report has been declining continuously since October last year, and has now reached the end of the fifth month. This development has raised expectations for a potential increase in demand, as investors can see that most altcoins have fallen to attractive price levels.
Meanwhile, many analysts detected the first positive signals on the OTHERS/BTC chart in February, which tracks the total market capitalization of altcoins excluding Bitcoin versus BTC.
Analyst Blade noted that the chart shows potential signs of a reversal in the monthly time frame. The MACD crossed above its signal line and formed its first green histogram bar since the beginning of 2024. Similar signals appeared before the big altcoin rallies in 2017 and 2020.
Blade predicts that the moment is changing as the compression of the structure usually precedes the expansion, and that the biggest altcoin season has arrived.
These factors have strengthened Expectations Altcoins may make a recovery in March.
Altcoin investors remain cautious
Offering a more balanced perspective, CryptoQuant data suggests that the ratio of altcoin trading volume to Bitcoin trading volume on centralized exchanges (CEX) has fallen to its lowest level over the past year.
The index reached its highest levels in 2025 at around 3.5, then gradually declined to fall below 2.5 at the end of last year, and continued to register close to 2.2 in early 2026.
This trend shows that investors’ expectations for the altcoin season are still weak. Fundamentally, capital continues to flow into Bitcoin, leaving altcoins relatively neglected in centralized exchanges. A real altcoin season may require sustained capital turnover and new inflows into the market.
The seasonal altcoin index was recorded at the time of writing this report 43and it is still far from the 75 pip threshold needed to confirm the existence of an altcoin season.
A recent report from BeInCrypto stated that The altcoin market has experienced 13 consecutive months of net selling. Even if the altcoin season materializes, it will likely be selective and based on strong fundamentals.
