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Solana is facing renewed selling pressure as its price continues to decline, bringing the altcoin closer to a critical support level that has not been tested for more than seven months.
The continued decline reflects deeper market weakness, and technical indicators suggest further losses could be on the horizon unless conditions change quickly.
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Solana’s exponential moving averages indicate the possibility of a death cross forming.
This pattern occurs when the short-term moving average crosses the long-term moving average, often indicating the beginning of a prolonged downward trend. Historical behavior suggests that Solana can repeat the previous market cycles seen in the first and second quarters of this year.
During those periods, SOL decreased by 59% from the local peak before the death cross fully formed.
Similar setup today Solana will be sent Around $98, increasing its current decline by 47% from the local peak.
These conditions highlight weak sentiment and reinforce concerns about continued downside risk.
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The overall momentum also seems to be fragile. Solana’s net realized P/E ratio fell to its lowest level since June 2023, showing that holders are facing significant realized losses after the recent downturn.
This measure often reflects changes in the larger economy as investors reassess risk during rapid market declines.
However, there is a notable upside. When the realized net profit/loss ratio falls below 0.1, instead they usually follow.
This pattern was repeated in March, April and September of 2023, each time signaling the beginning of a recovery.
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If this trend repeats itself, Solana can testify Strong recovery as realized losses and selling pressure stabilize.
Solana is trading at $127, holding the support level above $123. The altcoin expects broader market stability and renewed investor confidence to drive a rebound in prices.
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However, the indicators mentioned above indicate that the risks are still tilted to the downside.
If Solana comes close to confirming the cross of death, the price could continue to fall, breaking the support level below $123 and sliding to $105 or even $100.
This move will represent a 21.8% correction from current levels and will visit the price zones last seen in March.
If realized losses stabilize and investor sentiment improves, Solana can recover from $123 and try to rise to $136.
Breaking the barrier above this level opens the way towards $157, which will cancel the bearish hypothesis and restore a more bullish structure.