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BitMine’s share price is starting to show the first signs of recovery. BMNR rose 6% on February 13 before the close and is up 7.32% over the past five days. This rebound came despite Ethereum, which BitMine is closely following due to its eth treasury exposure, falling by 3.3% in the past week. This gap indicates that BitMine’s share price may be trying to recover.
BMNR charts also show that this rebound may be weak despite major players like Citigroup increasing their BMNR holdings quarter after quarter. The bearish structure remains active, and the next trading sessions could decide whether BitMine will continue the recovery or enter a new bearish wave.
The bearish flag structure shows an attempt to recover, but the risk of a collapse remains
The price of trading shares BitMine Within a bearish flag pattern since early February. A bearish flag forms after a sharp decline, followed by a temporary bullish consolidation. This model often leads to another decline if buyers fail to regain full control.
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Between December 10, 2025 and February 5, 2026, BitMine’s share price fell by about 60%. This sharp decline formed the “mast” phase of the model. Since February 5, the stock has risen about 26%, forming a bearish “flag” pattern, which represents an attempted recovery.
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However, this recovery remains in the bearish structure. Unless the stock breaks key resistance levels, this rebound may just be a temporary pause before another drop.
If the bear flag pattern is confirmed, BitMine’s share price could drop to about 60% from the discovery point of the lower trend line. This raises a crucial question. If BitMine’s stock price is recovering, why is the risk of a crash still high?
The answer becomes clearer when analyzing momentum indicators.
A hidden bearish divergence shows that BMNR sellers are still in control
Momentum analysis using the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows hidden signs of weakness. The Relative Strength Index measures buying and selling power on a scale from 0 to 100. When the RSI rises while the price is struggling, it can indicate the strength of weak buyers.
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The BitMine stock price formed a subtle downward divergence between November 18, 2025 and February 9, 2026. During this period, the price recorded a lower high, while the RSI recorded a higher high. This pattern generally indicates that the sellers are still in control, and perhaps that the decline will continue.
After this divergence, Bitmain’s share price fell by more than 14%.
A similar setup has now appeared again. The RSI is starting to rise, but the price is still below the major resistance near $21.57. If the stock fails to break above this level, another bearish divergence may be confirmed.
This increases the likelihood of a bearish breakout of the bearish flag pattern. However, momentum alone does not explain the entire price trend. Capital flow data provide another important clue.
Capital flows remain weak despite institutional buying
Institutional interest in Bitmain has seen a notable increase. Citigroup increased its stake by more than 540%, while companies such as BlackRock and BNY Mellon also increased their exposure. Usually, this purchase supports the price increase.
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Fintel’s snapshot shows the addition of Citigroup, but also highlights several divestments of BMNR by companies such as Baird Financial, Resources Investment Advisors, and others, which could spell danger for the price.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator shows a similar picture. CMF measures whether large investors are putting money into or withdrawing money from an asset. When the CMF remains below zero, it indicates that capital is generally still flowing out of assets.
Bitmain’s CMF has started to gradually increase, showing that the selling pressure is slowing down. But the indicator is still below the zero line. This means that overall institutional buying has not yet fully reflected the broader selling trend. This creates a conflict. While some larger firms are increasing their exposure, large capital flows generally remain cautious, as the previous snapshot highlighted.
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This explained why Bitmain’s stock price recovery remains weak.
The price levels now determine whether the BitMine stock price will recover or collapse
Bitmain’s stock price is currently at a crucial level. If BMNR crosses the resistance between $21.57 and $21.74, the bearish pattern will temporarily decrease. This may allow the stock to rise towards $29.60 and perhaps $34.03, provided that ETH is also gaining momentum.
Such a move will show that buyers have regained control. But downside risks remain high.
If the BMNR stock price falls below the $20.02 support level, a bearish flag breakout may begin. This may push the stock towards lower support levels at $15.05 and $11.22. A full break may eventually lead the stock to fall towards $8.36.
fall out The price of Bitmain shares Currently at a turning point. The strong accumulation by Citigroup showed institutional confidence. But downward momentum and weak capital flows continue to limit the strength of the recovery.
The next few sessions will determine whether Tom Lee’s BMNR will follow the institutional optimism or confirm the bearish pattern.
