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The “festive meeting” – a beloved Wall Street tradition for the end of the year – generated an enthusiastic crowd among the most followed analysts on the Chinese crypto Twitter.
Far from dismissing this concept as Western market stories, key opinion leaders in the Chinese-speaking Chinese community see the last days of trading in 2025 as a pivotal signal of what to expect in 2026.
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Santa’s Rising is more than a seasonal rumor
Cited Verex, one of the most famous macro analysts in Chinese crypto circles, saying that the festive event is not just a statistical phenomenon. “It’s more like a barometer of the market’s risk appetite,” he wrote. He noted that if the markets manage to rally as expected from Christmas to the New Year – without new macroeconomic drivers – it confirms that investors are still willing to put money into risk assets, establishing a sentiment base for prices next year.
It also pointed to the other side of the coin, as FEREX warned that a failed rally often indicates risk appetite has yet to recover, leaving markets vulnerable to weakness or volatile trading through January and beyond.
The analyst pointed to several mechanical factors that generally support the year’s earnings; Tax loss harvesting ends in mid-December, allowing capital to be recycled into shares. Institutional offices remain quiet during the holidays, reducing liquidity and allowing limited buying pressure to move the index higher. Year-end bonuses and automatic contributions to 401(k) retirement plans provide a negative boost to demand.
Michael Chow, a popular commentator on American markets on Chinese Twitter, highlighted the historical possibilities: Since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen 75% of the time during the festive period, achieving an average gain of 1.55%.
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But the risks are mounting
Not everyone has opened bottles of champagne before; Cryptojiji noted that the global trading volumes of Bitcoin and Ethereum have fallen to 2025 lows, and described the current conditions as a “waste of time” for traders. She advised traders focused on the launch to hold back and enjoy the holidays until liquidity returns.
Add caution to the winds in general; The Bank of Japan’s December hike to 0.75% raised concerns about the unraveling of the spread trade on the yen, while the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points – with leading indicators pointing to just two cuts until 2026 – disappointed markets that expected more easing, wrote Chu Financial.
Verex explained the tension directly: If, despite seasonal winds and liquidity gradually improving, the market cannot form an effective rally, this probably means that the pressure of the current environment of high interest rates on the economy has already overcome the impact of seasonal factors that induce positive feelings.
Preview 2026
Pay special attention to this year’s Santa Parade for Ferrix. FREX sees it as a virtual preview of the prospects for the first quarter of 2026. The logic of FREX is simple: if investors refuse to push the prices of risk assets higher even when seasonal patterns, sentiment gaps and liquidity returns align in their favor, there could be a deeper imbalance.
The intensity of the fire on Wall Street may partly reflect a lack of local options. Earlier this month, seven of China’s major financial industry associations clarified through a joint risk warning – the most comprehensive crackdown on cryptocurrencies since the 2021 ban that prompted all exchanges to leave the country.
The statement explicitly prohibited for the first time the tokenization of real assets (RWA) with stablecoins, free spins and mining. With regulators closing almost all entry channels, Chinese crypto investors are left with no options but to watch global markets from the sidelines.
The “crypto Twitter” of China Wall Street watched from the rest of the world, while everyone waits to see if Santa Claus will really show up.
