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The price of Cardano has entered a critical phase after confirming a bearish breakout. The symbol has already lost major support, and the technical structure now indicates a major risk of further downside. However, even if the big whales continue to sell and avoid turning, small investors will buy aggressively when the price falls.
This creates a dangerous divide in the market. The whales seem to be moving away, while retail investors are coming in. The main question now is whether people will buy the bottom – or are on their way to enter a new bearish wave.
The whales unloaded 120 million ADA before the crash – and still refuse to buy again
I registered The recent decrease in the price of Cardano By about 5% during the last 7 days, and this did not come without warning. The largest group of whales that hold between 100 million and 1 billion Ada began to reduce their activities days before the confirmation of the model of the head and shoulders.
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On February 19, this group held about 2.54 billion Ada. By February 23, their holdings had fallen to 2.42 billion Ada. This equates to a decrease of about 120 million ADA, or about 30 million.
This sale began even before the discovery of the head and shoulders model was confirmed on February 22. In other words, the whales reduced their exposure while the model was still fit, indicating that they expected more disadvantages. And most importantly, it hasn’t started The whales are buying again.
The absence of accumulation here is more important than the sale itself. When big investors expect a recovery, they usually start to re-accumulate near support levels. His refusal to do so indicates continued caution.
This raises a fundamental question. If whales avoid the market, why do small investors suddenly and furiously enter?
Retail buying up 640% even as profitability signals further downside risk
The stock market data revealed a major change in the behavior of individual investors. On February 21, ADA flows from the platforms amounted to approximately $344,450. By February 23, outflows had grown to $2,550,000. This represents a whopping 640% increase in just two days.
Stock flows occur when investors withdraw currencies into private portfolios. This usually indicates buy and hold rather than being prepared to sell. Individual investors were clearly buying the dip while the whales were clearly selling.
However, other leading indicators suggest that the correction is not over. The indicator % of total supply in profit shows how much of the circulating supply is currently generating profits. This index fell to 6.06% on February 12, hitting its lowest level in three months.
It then recovered to about 11% before declining, and is now near 8.45%. Although profitability remains low, it is still about 40% higher than the recent bottom. This is important because markets often continue to decline when profitability remains above extreme levels of income.
This suggests that Cardano may have more room to decline.
This creates an obvious contradiction. Individual investors are buying aggressively, but take-profit and whale positions indicate continued caution. The ADA price chart now shows how this conflict can be resolved.
Cardano price targets $0.23, unless buyers recover the crucial resistance
Cardano has now confirmed a breakout from the head and shoulders pattern on the 8-hour chart. This pattern usually indicates a shift from accumulation to distribution and often leads to further decay.
male PennCrypto reported that Cardano has been losing ground recently The main support level is at $0.266 and is now trading near $0.265. This level was not really able to provide a strong recovery. Even the Smart Money Index (SMI), which tracks the positions of informed investors, deviates from the signal line that the ADA price breaks the support. This pattern is consistent with the whale’s skepticism and suggests that an immediate recovery may not be as imminent as individual investors believe.
The next immediate support is located near $0.259.
If this level is broken, Cardano can fall towards $0.233, as this represents an additional 12% drop from current levels and is in line with the prediction of the bearish model. The overall structure remains bearish unless Cardano can recover higher resistance levels.
The first sign of strength will only appear if Cardano recovers above $0.276. However, negating a true downtrend would require a move above $0.293. Until then, the trend remains bearish.
