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The price of Cardano is stuck in an uncomfortable situation. It’s down about 6% over the past seven days and has barely moved in the past 24 hours. This horizontal performance reflects indecision.
The price continued to be near a major trend line for days without breaking or pushing. This same line previously determined the fate of Cardano. The market is now asking a familiar question: is this support holding because buyers are entering, or because sellers are just waiting?
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Support for the trend is rising as subsurface volume weakens
The most important level currently is Cardano’s 20-day EMA. The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) gives more weight to recent prices and helps show whether short-term trend support is still holding.
The importance of this line is because it has already failed once. On December 11, Cardano lost its 20-day EMA and was followed by a sharp decline of almost 25%. This move turned a slow decline into a rapid sell-off.
The EMA stops this time. But trading volumes tell a less comforting story.
This warning comes from the distributive accumulation volume (OBV) indicator. OBV tracks whether trading volume flows into bullish candles or exits bearish candles. When the OBV decreases while the price moves horizontally or rises, it usually indicates quiet selling rather than healthy demand.
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Between December 28 and January 5, the price of Cardano rose, but the OBV indicator tended to fall. Sellers split during bullish strength. Since then, OBV has fallen below the recent trend line, suggesting that the volume support is still weakening, not improving.
So why isn’t the ADA price broken yet? This question leads directly to what happens on the chain.
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The bear buying is real as the whales have added about 100 million coins
Despite the weak OBV, Cardano did not collapse because large holders bought on the dips. The data of the series clearly shows a clustering near the trend line.
The numbers show: Wallets with 1 to 10 million Cardanos increased their balances from about 5.49 billion to 5.51 billion Cardanos, adding about 20 million Cardanos since January 11.
During the same period, wallets holding 10 to 100 million Cardanos increased from about 13.44 billion to 13.52 billion Cardanos, adding about 80 million Cardanos. Combined, the whales added almost 100 million Cardanos during this period. At the current market price, that’s about $40 million to buy the dip.
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Momentum data supports this behavior.
The Money Flow Index (MFI), which combines price and trading volume to track buying pressure, tends to be higher. This shows that money is flowing into Cardano even as the general sentiment remains shaky. This explains the current importance.
Sellers lack momentum, while buyers, including whales, continue to absorb pullbacks. But accumulation alone does not guarantee an upward wave. To get a clear trend, the market continues to follow the derivatives and the price structure.
Derivatives positioning explains why $0.40 determines the next price movement of Cardano
Derivatives statements add an important layer of caution. During the last 24 hours:
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- The smart money position remains mostly unchanged, despite being long net. (limited rebound hopes)
- Lack of strong accumulation in new purchase deals
- The top 100 addresses and regular whale traders continued to be net sellers, with no real accumulation of long positions.
This behavior means that traders are anticipating a move, but have not yet committed to the upside.
The focus returns to the price levels. Since January 7th, Cardano has traded in a narrow range between $0.37 and $0.40. The importance of the $0.40 level is only that ADA lost this level on January 8 and has not been able to recover since then.
A clear break above $0.40, followed by acceptance towards $0.43, represents a trend recovery signal. This also requires the OBV to stabilize and turn upwards, which confirms the presence of real demand.
The negative trends are more clearly visible. A daily close below $0.37 will weaken the structure and pave the way for a move towards $0.35. If the pace of selling accelerates, the $0.31 level will come back into focus.
