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Cardano’s price is up 8.6% in the past 24 hours as excitement builds around a new privacy-focused subchain, Midnight. In the lunar cycle, the midnight phase usually represents a reset – a moment before a new beginning. But for ADA, this restart may signal the beginning of a new decline instead.
The price is still in a bearish pattern, the momentum is still weak, and many signals on the chain indicate that the same downward trend that has dominated for months can continue. Could this be the start of a 39% drop in ADA prices?
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The bear flag structure and hidden bearish divergence also favors the downside
Cardano is still trading in a bearish flag on the daily chart. A bear flag is formed when a strong decline is followed by a smaller, upward-sloping channel. This channel often acts as a temporary stop before the same downward trend continues.
Between November 10 and December 9, the ADA price made a higher low, while the RSI made a higher high. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), or Relative Strength Index, is a momentum indicator that shows whether buying or selling pressure is stronger. When the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rises, but the price does not follow, it often indicates that the rebound is weak and sellers are still in control of the trend.
For what The ADA has already declined About 54% over the past year, this subtle downward fork supports the idea that the downward trend is far from over.
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The bear flag magnate expects a potential downside of 39% if the lower trendline breaks. This move puts the ADA close to $0.25, a deeper target.
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This sets the stage for the rest of the story: midnight may represent a new phase for the network, but the chart is still treating this rebound as part of a larger trend.
Whales exit as expendable currencies rise – Will traders sell the rebound?
Series signals correspond to a bearish chart.
bigger the rent of Cardanao, Holding more than US$ 1 billion, it has drastically reduced its exposure since December 8. Its combined balance has fallen from about 1.86 billion ADA to almost zero in a few days. The whales will not empty their positions in this way, unless they anticipate better entry points below or want to use force to get out.
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A second measurement on the rope confirms this behavior. The Consumer Token Age Squad tracks the number of ADA tokens transferred daily, across both small and large wallets. On December 6, approximately 95.26 million ADAs moved to the chain. By December 10, this number had grown to US$130.46 million, an increase of almost 37% in four days.
This jump shows that more holders, including older ones, can send coins to the market. When whale stocks crash and cryptocurrencies jump at the same time, it usually means that traders are using the rebound to sell and not to accumulate.
So the first section showed that the structure is bearish. This section shows that the behavior is also descending. Now price levels translate this combined pressure into specific areas that traders must monitor.
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Cardano price levels show a wider downward trajectory
With the signals of the chart and the negative skew series, the next movements depend on certain clear levels.
If it decreases ADA price Below $0.42, the lower trend line of the bear flag breaks. From there, the price could fall towards $0.37. If $0.37 fails to hold, a full flag forecast towards $0.25 becomes more likely, which is the 39% decline that the model suggests.
For bulls, the path is narrower, but still possible. Cardano must first recover $0.55. A daily close above this level will break the upper limit of the bear flag and weaken the bearish setup. If the price is maintained above $0.60, this midnight phase will seem to pass from a reset to a more constructive recovery.
Currently, a simple decline of 7-8% is enough to trigger a bearish breakout, while a rise of closer to 20% is needed to negate it. With the whales out and the spendable coins on the rise, the weight of evidence is still tilted to the side.
