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Bloomberg’s Trumponomics year-end podcast provided a comprehensive look at the global economy in 2026. The episode was moderated by Stephanie Flanders, head of government and economics at Bloomberg.
The episode was hosted by Tom Orlik, chief economist at Bloomberg Economics, Mario Parker, managing editor for US Politics, and Parme Olson, a Bloomberg Opinion writer covering artificial intelligence.
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We are not talking about digital currencies, but there are four important topics
The participants discussed during About 48 minutes A wide range of topics, including trade and tariffs, security (Ukraine), artificial intelligence, the Federal Reserve, China, and the US economy in general. It should be noted that cryptocurrencies are not directly mentioned at all.
However, four topics discussed during the podcast stood out as particularly relevant to digital asset markets in 2026. Below is an overview of these selected topics and their potential implications for crypto.
1. Threats to the independence of the Federal Reserve
Orlik addressed the independence of the Federal Reserve as one of the most impactful issues of 2026. President Trump will have the authority to appoint a new Fed chair when Powell’s term ends in May 2026. Considered Kevin Hassett He is widely considered a major candidate, while Stephen Myron has already joined the Federal Reserve Board.
“The Fed’s independence forms a fundamental basis for the markets’ confidence that the United States will be serious about controlling inflation,” Orlik said. “If this confidence is undermined, the status of the dollar, and the status of the Treasury market, will both be in question.”
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Crypto Impact: The erosion of Fed independence creates a double-edged sword for crypto. If the dollar’s credibility weakens, Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative may gain momentum. Grayscale said In his predictions for the year 2026 “The future for fiat currencies has become more uncertain; by contrast, we are very confident that 20 million Bitcoin will be mined in March 2026.”
But political uncertainty can also stimulate risk aversion, which will put pressure on crypto prices in the short term, along with other risky assets.
2. The danger of an artificial intelligence bubble
Olson warned that there could be a correction in AI stocks in 2026. “There are 900 million people who use GBT Chat every week,” he explained. “It’s an amazing achievement in terms of market dominance, but it’s not really profitable for OpenAI because only a few of those people pay subscriptions.” She compared the current environment to the dot-com bubble and the railroad boom of the 19th century.
Predicting the effects of encryption: Analysts at QCP Capital report that crypto remains trapped in macroeconomic volatility, with AI stocks being a key driving force behind broader risk sentiment. If AI takes the correct course, the resulting risk sentiment will likely have a negative impact on the crypto markets as well.
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3. Transmission of fees to the real economy
Orlik explained that one of the surprises of 2025 was the slow transmission of tariffs to consumer prices and corporate profits. However, this is expected to change in early 2026. Orlik said that the spillover effect of tariffs to the rest of the economy – higher prices in stores, lower profit margins for US companies and the potential for a negative impact on US stocks – is still something that will happen in the first months of 2026.
Predicting the effects of encryption: If rate-driven inflation persists, the Fed’s ability to cut interest rates will be limited. YouHodler stated that continued high interest rates could reduce risk appetite and slow capital flows into crypto assets. However, in a stagflation scenario – where inflation persists with growth slowing – Bitcoin can be revalued as an inflation hedge.
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4. Dollar stability and political dynamics
Orlik draws attention to a potential paradox in the dynamics of politics after the midterm elections. If Trump loses popularity in the middle of the mandates and faces a deadlock in Congress, he may turn to the Federal Reserve – where he appointed his own head – as an alternative tool of influence.
Orlik said there is a potential for a dynamic between a loss of power in the midterm and an increased ability and willingness to influence the Fed, which could reflect negatively on the US bond market.
Predicting the effects of encryption: The volatility of the Dollar has historically seen a correlation with the demand for Bitcoin. Grayscale predicts that digital financial systems like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which offer transparency, programmability and ultimate scarcity, will be in growing demand as the risks of fiat currencies escalate.
Institutional predictions for the price of Bitcoin in 2026 vary widely. Grayscale expects a new record high in the first half of the year, marking the end of the four-year cycle theory. JP Morgan expects the price to reach $170,000, while Fundstrat sees the price between $200,000 and $250,000. Negative scenarios indicate that the price could fall below $75,000 if global liquidity tightens.
The overall picture for 2026 seems to be bullish, given Trump’s economic mandate and the course of the Federal Reserve’s policies and support for crypto regulation. However, the unknown results of AI construction and the current impact of interest rate cuts on consumers and the economy will likely determine the direction of the markets in the first and second quarters.
