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The recent correction in the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is reinforcing rather than undermining the long 4-year cycle that has historically shaped the behavior of the asset market, according to a new report from Caico Research.
This debate carries major implications for traders and investors dealing with the volatility of Bitcoin in early 2026.
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Bitcoin follows a four-year cycle in the middle of a sharp correction
Bitcoin has fallen from His cycle cost is close to $126,000 To the range between 60,000 And $70,000 in principle… February. This saw a decrease of about 52%.
While the move has affected market sentiment, Caico argues that the decline is entirely consistent with previous post-split bearish markets and does not indicate a structural break from historical patterns.
“Bitcoin’s decline from $126,000 to $60,000 confirms rather than contradicts the four-year halving cycle, which has always achieved declines of 50-80% after the peak of the cycle,” the Caico data report said.
The report notes that the 2024 half happened in April. Bitcoin peaked about 12-18 months later, closely matching previous cycles. In the previous cases, these peaks usually followed extended bear markets that lasted about a year before the next accumulation phase.
Kaiko says that the current price action indicates that Bitcoin has moved from the post-fork euphoria to that expected corrective period.
It should be noted that many experts have First challenge Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. They argue that this classification no longer exists in today’s market. In October, Arthur Hayes said that the four-year Bitcoin cycle it’s over Instead, he pointed to global liquidity as a key driver of price movement.
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Others have argued that Bitcoin is now following a cycle Its duration is instead 5 years From a 4-year course. They cite the impact of increased global liquidity conditions, institutional engagement, and broader changes in macroeconomic policies.
Kaiko acknowledged that structural changes, including the adoption of Bitcoin spot trading funds (ETFs), Greater regulatory clarity, and a more mature DeFi system, distinguish the period from 2024 to 2025 from previous cycles. However, he said these developments did not prevent an expected correction after the peak.
Instead, they changed the way the fluctuations appear. Bitcoin spot funds recorded more than $2.1 billion in outflows during the recent selloff.
This increased counterparty pressure and showed that institutional access increases liquidity in both directions, not just to the upside. According to Kayko,
“While the DeFi infrastructure has shown relative resilience compared to 2022, the decline in the value of financiers and a slowdown in stake flows suggest that no sector is immune from the dynamics of the DeFi market. Regulatory clarity has proven insufficient to separate cryptocurrencies from broader macro risk factors such as Fed uncertainty and weak asset market direction “.
Kayko also raised the main question What is now dominating market discussions: Where is the bottom? The report explained that Bitcoin’s daily recovery from $60,000 to $70,000 indicates that initial support may be formed.
However, historical precedents show that Usually bear markets It usually takes six to twelve months and includes several failed highs before establishing a sustainable low.
Kaiko noted that the dominance of stablecoin is 10.3%, while the financing rates are close to zero and the open interest in the future is down around 55%, which indicates a significant deleveraging in the market. However, the company cautioned that it is unclear whether the current conditions represent an early, mid or late capitulation.
“The framework of the four-year cycle expects us to be at the 30% mark. Bitcoin is doing exactly what it has done in every previous cycle, but it seems that many market participants are convinced that this time will be different,” wrote Kayko.
As February 2026 progresses, market participants must weigh both sides of this debate. Bitcoin’s next steps will reveal whether history continues to repeat itself or a new market order is taking shape.
