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Bitcoin is trading near $87,820, which is flat on the day and still down about 4% in the last 30 days. Buyers emerge on every drop in Bitcoin price, but every bounce fails to break out of the same narrow range. The chart now shows a clear reason for the continued attempts.
The short answer: the unfortunate problem of Bitcoin 13. The main level of resistance in the chain is 13% above the current price, and until it breaks, the rally continues to fade before the momentum builds.
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Short-term contract holders set the ceiling with a cost base barrier
Glassnode’s short-term cost base model tracks the average price at which new buyers hold coins. Short-term holders generally react to fluctuations more quickly. When prices trade below the entry, sell to avoid deeper losses. This creates an automatic layer of selling pressure that acts as a ceiling on the chart.
Currently, this cost base is $99,790, about 13% above the set point. At $87,820 (current price), most new buyers are underwater. This explains why everything fades away Increase in Bitcoin Before building towards a meeting: salespeople enter first.
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The HODL Waves data, a measure that separates categories for age retention, confirms this behavior. Payment from one day to one week (short-term payment) decreased from 6.38% of the offer on November 27 to 2.13% on December 27. These new buyers sell the currencies instead of holding them, which… Strengthens resistance before reaching Bitcoin Up to $99,790.
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This makes $99,790 the most important resistance on the Bitcoin chart in the near term. It is worth noting that this level of resistance in the chain is dynamic and can change depending on the spot price. Therefore, we also want to check a level on the technical chart.
If the price recovers, short holders will make profits, the forced selling will likely stop, and the supply pressure that has prevented any rebound will begin to dissipate.
Momentum shows that buyers are trying, but not enough to go
On the 12-hour chart, Trading Bitcoin Within a symmetrical triangle. A symmetrical triangle is formed when the lower highs and lower lows are compressed into one point, which indicates indecision between buyers and sellers. It is a neutral pattern that needs to be broken to confirm the trend.
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Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) measures whether there is a large flow of funds into or out of the market by tracking volume pressure. The CMF rises with the price, which means that buyers participate, but remains below the zero line.
A CMF below zero means that the inflows are not strong enough to confirm the strength of the trend, so momentum alone cannot break the upper trend line of the triangle.
This explains the hesitation in the structure. The buyers are there, but they have not changed the advantage. Until the CMF closes above zero and the price exits the triangle, the pattern indicates an uncontrolled effort. The price of Bitcoin will continue to rise in the range due to short-term selling pressure.
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Bitcoin price levels also show the 13% barrier and why it is important
Bitcoin was stuck between $84,370 and $90,540 for most of late December. Any approach towards $90,540 fades as bearers pull back to cut losses. This is directly in line with the short-term cost ceiling.
For now, the roadmap is clear.
A move above $94,600 would be the first sign of progress for buyers. If the price continues to rise and recover $99,820 (close to the level of the short-term cost of the holder from before), the unfortunate 13th barrier, the short-term holders will recover, and the selling pressure that finally stopped any rebound will weaken. This will convert Bitcoin price movement is increasing.
From there, $107,420 becomes the next magnet. If buyers cannot defend the momentum, $84,370 becomes the first support to watch. A daily close below $80,570 would confirm its breakout, reset the trend outlook for January, and extend the lower range.
