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The price of Bitcoin rose almost 20% after approaching $60,000 on February 6. The move raised hopes of a “buy-dive” and sparked talk of a local decline. At the same time, US demand indicators are starting to recover from recent lows.
But beneath the surface, volume signals, data on the chain, and price structure suggest that the rally could be fragile. Several warning patterns now resemble the preludes that have preceded major declines in this cycle.
The bear flag shows that the big bucks are not committed at all
One of the clearest warning signs comes from the Klinger Oscillator, a volume-based indicator that tracks the flow of large funds.
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Unlike indicators such as CMF, which mainly focus on short-term money tightness, the Klinger Oscillator measures the intensity of a large portfolio volume in trends. It’s designed to highlight how the best players stack up over time, not just daily activities.
In simple terms, it shows whether large funds are quietly accumulating or preparing to sell in rallies.
Between October 6 and January 14, Bitcoin has fallen From about $126,000 to $97,800, a decrease of almost 22%. During this period, the Klinger oscillator rose while the price weakened. This led to a downward fork.
This divergence warned that the strong trading volume from large portfolios (and perhaps farms and institutions) does not support a price recovery. Within weeks, Bitcoin extended its decline towards $60,000 with the Klinger reading falling sharply (Potential for large cash flows).
A similar pattern forms again.
Between February 2nd and February 9th, the price fell while the Klinger oscillator trended higher. This suggests that large players may be in a position (recent buys) to sell towards rebounds instead of building long-term exposure.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s decline from mid-January to early February formed a strong bearish “pole”. The current price rebound action looks like a bear flag, a pattern that often indicates a continuation of a downtrend, with a breakout probability of about 40% if the lowest support falls. This can trap the exciting buy in the rebound.
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When Klinger’s growing readings line up with bear science, it usually means the demonstrations lack deep institutional support. The best players are active, but not in accumulation mode, and can distribute at every opportunity. days BTC ETF Exit Soon, Klinger’s hypothesis will be confirmed.
Improving demand in the United States has failed before
This technical weakness does not exist in isolation. This comes at a time when US demand is starting to improve.
The Coinbase Premium indicator tracks whether… Bitcoin was commercial At a premium or discount on US Coinbase compared to global exchanges. It primarily reflects US institutional demand.
On February 4, the index fell to around -0.22, indicating weak US participation. This level was close to December 31, 2024, when the index fell to -0.23. At that time, Bitcoin was trading near $93,300.
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Many traders think a bottom could be in place. Instead, the price later fell to around $76,200, a drop of almost 18%.
Since the beginning of February, the index has recovered to about -0.07, indicating the improvement of the interest of the United States and consistent with the reading of the Klinger oscillator. However, history shows that demand recoveries often come before the price bottoms out, not after. In 2024, US demand improves first. A deeper correction came later.
On-chain data adds another layer of risk.
The group of holders, who are short-term traders from one day to one week, have increased their share of the supply from about 2.05% to more than 3.3% since February 5 (during the recovery period of 20%). That’s a growth of more than 60% in a few days, as highlighted by HODL Waves, a metric that separates portfolios by time.
This category tends to sell quickly when prices weaken. Their growing presence makes the market more turbulent. A similar spike in the number of short-term holders at the end of January was followed by a rapid decline of 3%. So far, the US demand has coincided with growing speculation, not strong conviction.
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Key Bitcoin price levels show where the recovery may fail
All signals are now grouped around Some Bitcoin Price Zones Critic.
The first major support is near $67,350. A daily close below this level can restore selling pressure.
If it breaks, the next negative targets are:
- $60,130, another low
- $57,900 (key Fibonacci support and retracement zone only 18% from current levels)
- $53,450 for a major correctional area
- $43,470, bear flag display
A move from current levels to $43,400 represents an additional decline of about 35%. On the upside, Bitcoin needs to recover $72,330 to stabilize and break out of the potential bull trap. This level was the peak of recent events.
Above that, $79,240 is still crucial. The recovery of this area will take about half of the previous decline and probably negate the previous bearish structure. Only then will the path to $97,870 reopen. Until that happens, all Bitcoin price increases will remain at risk.
