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Bitcoin (BTC) recovery in early 2026 may not last long as new data indicates increasing selling pressure. Traders holding long positions may need to consider adverse conditions to reduce risk.
On-chain data shows that Bitcoin whales are increasing their activity on exchanges. This behavior is especially risky in a low volume environment.
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Bitcoin whale flow increased in January
One of the most worrying signals is the whale report in all exchanges (EMA14), which rose to a ten-month high.
This measure represents the ratio of the top 10 inflows to total exchange flows. High values ​​indicate that whales use markets extensively.
Although the reserves of Bitcoin exchanges continue to decrease Due to the demand for exchange-traded funds (DATs) and ETFsHowever, a sudden increase in this percentage can be an early warning. This indicates that Bitcoin balances on exchanges may start to rise again.
“This development coincides with the price of Bitcoin trying to recover after a corrective phase. “The model indicates a possible strategy by the whales to take advantage of the buying liquidity to take profits and use the current market as exit liquidity.” CryptoOnchain, CryptoQuant analyst.
In addition, increasingly fragile market liquidity increases the risk of sharp price fluctuations and increased volatility.
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According to a post by Glassnode on X, spot trading volume for Bitcoin and altcoins has fallen to its lowest level since November 2023.
“This weak demand is in stark contrast to the upward movements in the market. This highlights the weak conditions of increased liquidity behind the recent price strength.” reported Glass node.
In a low liquidity environment, only limited buying pressure is needed to push prices higher. Conversely, moderate selling pressure can lead to large downward moves.
If exchange traders start selling as suggested, with weakened liquidity, Bitcoin’s more than 6% return and 10% recovery in the overall value of the altcoin market could end soon.
Additionally, analyst Willie Wu noted a sharp drop in Bitcoin transaction fees, describing the market as a “ghost town.”
Graphs plotting the meme and transaction fees show the chain’s activity at its lowest levels. Both indicators fell sharply, reflecting a decline in transactions. Reduced activity on the chain means a weaker flow of capital in and out, making the market less dynamic.
He’s waiting for you And an increase Possible short term in January With liquidity reaching a local minimum. However, the long-term outlook remains pessimistic due to the lack of real activity.
short term, expected Some analysts expect Bitcoin to correct towards $90,000 and $88,500. These levels also correspond to the newly formed CME gap.
