Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Fed Meets Expectations But Fails To Impress BTC Traders

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade during its recent consolidation phase, around $90,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors digest a dovish interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in December and its implications for risk assets.

Bitcoin price action is approaching a major bearish trend line that may determine its next directional movement. At the same time, institutional flows into Bitcoin spot funds showed a moderate flow, and Strategy added more Bitcoin to its reserve.

The tone of the policy of the Fed sparks consolidation in Bitcoin

It started Bitcoin price The week was on a positive note as it continued its weekend recovery during the first half of the week and remained above $92,600 on Tuesday.

However, The impulse subsided On Wednesday, BTC closed at $92,015 after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

In a long-awaited move, The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points. But the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee indicated a possible stop in January.

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Reinforcing caution, politicians expected a cut of only a quarter of a percentage point in the outlook for 2026. This was the same forecast as in September, tempering expectations market of two interest rate cuts and contributing to short-squeeze on short-risk assets.

Contribute The Fed’s cautious approachaccompanied by the disapproval of the Oracle, it was a small step from the risk.

All these factors affected the riskiest asset, as the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization fell to a low of $89,260 before recovering and ending above $92,500 on Thursday.

With no big data from the United States to come, cryptocurrency markets will have to look to the speeches of members of the Federal Open Market Committee and a broader trend in risk sentiment.

At the end of the week.

Bitcoin is likely to consolidate in the near future Unless a major trigger comes up.

Uncertainty between Russia and Ukraine limits risk momentum

At the geopolitical level, the president of the United States said Donald Trump is “very frustrated” with Russia and UkraineHe doesn’t want to talk anymore, his spokeswoman said Thursday.

Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the United States was pushing the country to cede territory to Russia as part of a deal to end a nearly four-year war.

These ongoing geopolitical tensions and faltering peace talks continue to influence global risk sentiment, curbing risk appetite and contributing to Bitcoin’s consolidation until… Now this week.

Institutional demand is showing slight signs of improvement

Institutional demand for Bitcoin is showing slight signs of improvement.

According to SoSoValue data, it registered Bitcoin Fast Funds US-listed Bitcoin had a total inflow of $237.44 million as of Thursday, following a slight outflow of $87.77 million a week ago, indicating somewhat improved institutional investor interest.

However, these weekly flows remain small compared to those observed in mid-September. For BTC to continue its recovery, ETF inflows must increase.

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On the institutional front, Strategy Inc. (MSTR) announced on Monday that it purchased 10,624 Bitcoins for $962.7 million between December 1 and 7 at an average price of $90,615.

The company currently owns 660,624 Bitcoin worth $49.35 billion. The strategy still maintains a significant capacity to raise additional capital, which could enable widespread Bitcoin accumulation.

The chain’s data shows a decrease in sales pressure

CryptoQuant’s weekly report on Wednesday highlights this Selling pressure on Bitcoin is beginning to ease.

The report notes that exchange deposits have decreased as major players reduce their transfers to the exchanges.

The chart below shows that the large players’ share of total deposits has fallen from a high 24-hour average of 47% in mid-November to 21% as of Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the average deposit fell by 36%, from 1.1 BTC on November 22 to 0.7 BTC.

CryptoQuant concluded that if the selling pressure remains low, a dilution demonstration could push Bitcoin to $99,000. This level is the lowest range the trader has achieved in the price of the chain, and it is the resistance of the price during bear markets.

After this level, the main price resistances are $102,000 (1-year moving average) and $112,000 (chain moving average).

Copper Research’s report also indicated optimism regarding Bitcoin. The report indicates that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle isn’t over; He was replaced.

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Since the launch of spot index funds, Bitcoin has shown repeatable cycles between cost return and basis as shown in the chart below.

“Since the launch of the spot ETF, Bitcoin has moved in small, repeatable cycles where it returns to its cost base and then rebounds by about 70%,” Fadi Abu Alfa, head of research at Cooper, told FXStreet.

With Bitcoin now trading near its $84,000 cost base, this pattern suggests a move north of $140,000 in the next 180 days.

If the cost base increases by 10-15%, as in previous cycles, the first result seen in the previous tops produces a target range of $138,000 to $148,000.

Bitcoin collecting a Santa in the future?

Bitcoin posted a loss of 17.67% in November, disappointing traders who had expected a rally based on its strong historical returns for the month (see Coinglass data below).

December was historically a positive month for proprietary cryptocurrencies, generating an average return of 4.55%.

Looking at quarterly data, the fourth quarter (Q4) was the best quarter for Bitcoin overall, with an average return of 77.38%.

However, performance in the last three months of 2025 has been disappointing so far, registering a loss of 19% year to date.

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Bitcoin sets the bottom of the base?

You see Bitcoin weekly chart The price found support around the 100-week EMA at $85,809, with two consecutive green candles recorded after a four-week correction that began in late October.

As of this week, BTC is trading slightly higher, holding above $92,400.

If Bitcoin continues its recovery, it could extend the rally towards the 50-week moving average at $99,182.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly chart reads 40, which points to the upside and indicates that the downward momentum has broken. For the rally to continue, the RSI must cross above the neutral level of 50.

On the daily chart, Bitcoin price was rejected at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $94,253 (trading from April lows of $74,508 to historic highs of $126,199 in October) on Wednesday.

However, Bitcoin recovered on Thursday after testing its psychological $90,000 level.

If Bitcoin breaks the downtrend line (which has been drawn connecting several highs since the beginning of October) and closes above $94,253

Resistance level, the rally can be extended towards the psychological level of $100,000.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is stable near the neutral 50 level, which indicates a lack of momentum near both sides.

For the upward momentum to continue, the RSI must pass above the neutral level.

At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bullish crossover at the end of November, but remains intact, supporting the bullish thesis.

If BTC resumes its downward correction, The first major support will be at $85,569which is in line with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.