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Bitcoin price posted a slight rebound after recent selling pressure, but technical signals generally remain cautious. The crypto king recently broke the triangle pattern, spreading fears of further decline.
While the move may be stable, fundamental indicators suggest that the weakness may continue longer.
Bitcoin’s past may offer hints about its future
The realized profit/loss ratio (90D-SMA) has fallen below 1, indicating that Bitcoin has moved into a final loss regime. This indicator measures whether investors make more profits or losses in a consecutive period of 90 days. A reading of less than 1 confirms that losses are predominant.
Historical records suggest that declines below this threshold often last six months or more before recovering. The restoration of levels above 1 usually coincides with a return to constructive liquidity Digital currency market. Until that changes, the mood may be defensive and capital flows remain limited.
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Supply distribution data reveals notable changes between… Adult holders of Bitcoin. Wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC gradually reduce their exposure. In the last 12 days, its share of the total supply has decreased from 21.7% to 21.2%.
This change represents a reduction of approximately 90,000 bitcoins, with an estimated value of $5.8 billion. Although the pace of sales seems measured, the distribution by the big holders can affect the stability of the price. Continued selling could limit upside attempts in the near term.
BTC price recovery unlikely
Bitcoin is trading at $65,475 at the time of writing after rebounding from the $62,525 support level in the last 24 hours. The previous discovery in the triangle indicated a potential decline of 14%, but the immediate importance of the meeting seems to be slowing down.
If negative macroeconomic signals continue to dominate, Bitcoin could retest the support level at $62,525. A decisive break of this level will expose BTC to the psychological level of $60,000. Losing this support can increase the rate of panic selling and deepen the correction.
On the upside, renewed buying interest at current levels is changing short-term momentum. A break above the resistance at $67,394 will invalidate the triangle pattern. Continued strength above this level indicates an improving structure for BTC and indicates a temporary upward recovery despite overall liquidity issues.
