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From mid-November 2025, Bitcoin Bitcoin has seen a sharp correction from its all-time high above $109,000, now trading between $95,000 and $96,000. The speed of the decline has led many investors to ask the same question: How far can the value of Bitcoin fall before finding real support? This article examines the key factors behind the current panic, and sets realistic targets for the decline based on macroeconomic realities and supply chain metrics.
Why is the market still in panic mode?
There are two main factors fueling widespread fear.
First, expectations of a Fed rate cut in December 2025 have collapsed. The CME FedWatch tool currently shows only a 42.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut, a sharp drop from the level of certainty that was almost certain a few weeks ago. The lack of inflation and employment data, combined with mixed signals from Federal Reserve officials, has kept interest rates high for more than expected in the cryptocurrency market.
source: CME Fedwatch tool
Second, the previous US government shutdown caused the Treasury General Account (TGA) to swell to nearly $1 trillion. Although the government has returned to work, the release of this liquidity into the wider economy will not be immediate. Analysts estimate that the first wave of funds will hit the markets in one to five days, with notable increases over the next six weeks. Until this liquidity arrives, risky assets, including Bitcoin, remain under pressure.
How far will the price of Bitcoin realistically fall?
Current data on the chain suggests caution. Glassnode shows that 30-day capital flows for Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin (ETH) have been steadily declining since October 29, confirming the “tight liquidity” narrative. Meanwhile, the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index has been in a state of extreme fear for several days.
source: Glassnode data
Most importantly, the Bitcoin cost distribution heat map shows an almost complete absence of buying interest during the recent decline. Unless demand is renewed, the decline remains likely.
source: Data Glass node
URPD data on the chain It highlights two notable empty areas where relatively few coins have changed hands:
● US$81,000 – US$89,000
● US$71,000 – US$79,000
These areas of low liquidity often form “slippery slopes” during sell-off periods, allowing the price to decline rapidly until it reaches an area of more intense historical trading activity. If the selling pressure continues, Bitcoin could test the $81K-$89K range in the short term, with the lower range between $71K-$79K being a more extreme scenario, but still possible.
source: Data Glass node
When could macroeconomic conditions improve?
The clearest timetable for easing restrictions comes from the leadership of the Federal Reserve. Jerome Powell’s term as president expires in May 2026. Under the current administration, his successor is widely expected to adopt a more moderate stance in line with the demands for lower interest rates, which will provide structural support to risk assets no later than mid-2026.
Meanwhile, positive surprises – such as the Fed moving to monetary policy faster than expected or the acceleration of Therapeutic Goods Administration spending – could lead to a quick reversal of sentiment and cut the current decline.
conclusions
Bitcoin The digital currency is currently facing a storm of diminished prospects due to interest rate cuts and delayed financial liquidity. Chain metrics and URPD data suggest that the path of least resistance remains bearish towards $81K-$89K, and possibly $71K-$79K if panic intensifies. While it appears that there is a potential for short-term decline, the macroeconomic situation is expected to improve decisively by mid-2026 at the latest, and perhaps earlier if the flood of liquidity returns ahead of schedule.
For investors, this environment favors caution, disciplined risk management, and a willingness to accumulate at deeper support levels once signs of capitulation appear. History shows that Bitcoin’s strongest corrections have always preceded its strongest bullish periods.
