Bitcoin price is trapped in the “indecision” zone with a higher possibility of a downward crash

Bitcoin has traded almost flat this week. It is up about 1% in the last 24 hours, but is still down about 21% in the last 30 days. Over the past seven days, the price of Bitcoin has barely moved at all. This restricted behavior reflects a clear range: Bitcoin was caught in the same area of ​​6% while buyers and sellers continue to cancel each other.

Beneath the surface, the balance seems fragile. Combining technical and metric analysis on the chain keeps the risk of downside open unless conditions change very quickly.

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The triangle range continues, but Bitcoin is sitting near the breakout line

Price action Bitcoin Inside a wide triangle on the 12 o’clock chart. The upper trend line rejected all breakout attempts on November 28th and November 30th. There was also an attempt to break the level briefly on December 1, but buyers were able to recover before the candle closed.

Now the price is sitting very close to the lower rising trend line, which is almost perfectly aligned with the support at $85,664. From the current area around $86,949, Bitcoin only needs a decrease of 1.5% to break the structure. In comparison, a breakout would require a 5% move towards $91,637, making the upward path more difficult in the short term.

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The influx of money adds more context.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) index, which tracks whether there is a large flow of money, has been rising since November 21. This is the main reason for that The price of Bitcoin is not broken later This may reflect inflows of index funds or purchases from larger portfolios.

But CMF is also sitting near its uptrend line. If it falls below this line or drops below zero, the risk of breakage increases sharply.

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Until that time, Bitcoin continues to move between $85,664 and $91,637, which is the border of the 6% uncertainty zone.

Short-term buyers and long-term sellers create a delicate balance

The data on the chain also explains why the price of Bitcoin remains stable.

Long-term holders continue to sell. The change in net positions of long-term holders has been in the red throughout the month and has worsened since the beginning of November. On November 4, net flows were around 48,620 BTC. As of December 1, the value had risen to nearly 194,600 BTC, more than 300% higher than the previous reading. This means that covenant holders are still reducing their exposure.

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Short-term asset holders are constantly adding.

The total supply held by holders of the short-term asset rose to around 2.63 million BTC, putting it 1% below its three-month high. It sounds, doesn’t it? Well, not exactly.

This group consists of speculative traders. They can exit very quickly, increasing the price movements of the price.

So, the war game looks like this: Long-term holders are selling (bearish). Holders buy short-term assets (strong but speculative) and rising CMF (range supports but close to invalidation).

This situation keeps Bitcoin on the mid-flank rather than moving aggressively.

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Article Key Points Bitcoin Price Levels: A Small Drop Can Lead to a Bigger Move

From here, The price of Bitcoin can move in any direction: :

Rumping to the downside: A 12-hour close below $85,664 breaks the triangle, possibly pulling Bitcoin towards $83,811. If the selling continues, the next zone is at $80,599, which is the current bottom of the session.

Crossing the upside: A break above $91,637 is the minimum to trigger bullish strength. If the price is pushed while the CMF rises towards the 0.11 area, Bitcoin could try to move towards $93,780. But this path requires more work and buyer power than a negative level of sellers.

The chart is now tilted slightly to the downside: long-term holders continue to sell, speculative buyers are taking control, the price is near the lower trend line, and the CMF – while supportive – is just above its own limit.

Unless it breaks the upper band first, Bitcoin will likely remain in the 6% indecision zone, with the risk of a sudden move if $85,664 fails.