Bitcoin price continues to fall…but long-term holders and miners continue to support it

Bitcoin prices have had a rocky start to February, and despite some signs of support from long-term holders and miners, prices have so far suffered, especially as indicators reflecting strong market pressure continue to rise.

According to GugaOnChain analysis, approximately 43% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is at a loss, while quarterly price performance recorded a decline of approximately 26%, reflecting a clear weak phase that may last until the second quarter of 2026.

Network data showed a state of mass capitulation, with the NUPL (Net Unrealized Gains/Loss) index falling to 21.3%, clearly in fear territory.

This picture is supported by the Fear and Greed Index reading, which only reached 8 points, a level rarely seen in history and only seen during major crises such as the 2018 bottom, the March 2020 crash, and the 2022 FTX crash.

XWIN Research analysts believe this behavior reflects loss aversion and a collective rush to reduce risk after a sharp decline.

At the level of institutional flows, spot ETFs have shown obvious depletion, with capital outflows of approximately US$2.17 billion recorded since the beginning of this month, and as the price approached US$60,000 on February 6, the pace of capital outflows accelerated.

Meanwhile, Santiment data showed funding rates turning sharply into negative territory, signaling widespread concern about a downward trend.

Looking at prices, Bitcoin is down about 3% on a weekly basis, 10% in two weeks, and 28% in a month, but is still about 46% below its peak of over $126,000 in October 2025.

The contraction also extended to the broader market, with small and medium-sized digital currencies falling by approximately 18.3%, and the growth rate of the top 20 assets contracting by 12.48%.

Still, some signs of support are emerging as aggregate addresses have maintained strong demand of 380,104 BTC over the past 30 days and miners continue to hold BTC rather than sell it, supported in part by AI-related revenue.

Overall, the data depict a phase dominated by fear and defensive positioning, with limited selective aggregation and any shift toward recovery dependent on investor flexibility.

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