Physical Address
304 North Cardinal St.
Dorchester Center, MA 02124
Bitcoin is approaching a major macro event as US lawmakers scramble to avoid another federal government shutdown ahead of the January 30 funding deadline. The market enters this period under pressure, after a failed rally in January and a sharp change in sentiment.
Historically, Bitcoin has not acted as a reliable hedge during US government shutdowns. Instead, price action tends to follow the current market momentum.
Because the US blockade is back on the table
It derives from it Risk of renewed closure From the failure of Congress to finalize several projects of approval for the fiscal year 2026. The temporary funding expired on January 30, and the negotiations will stop, especially regarding the funding for the Department of Homeland Security.
Sponsored
Sponsored
Unless lawmakers pass a new continuing resolution or full-year funding before the deadline, parts of the federal government will begin shutting down immediately. Markets now treat January 30 as an all-binary event.
He reversed Bitcoin price movement Throughout January 2026, the fragility has already increased. After briefly pushing towards the $95,000-$98,000 range in the middle of the month, Bitcoin failed to hold those levels and reversed sharply.
The closing date shows a clear pattern for Bitcoin
Bitcoin historical performance During the US government shutdowns do not provide much support for an optimistic narrative.
During four closing events over the past decade, Bitcoin has declined or extended existing downtrends in three cases.
Sponsored
Sponsored
Only one shutdown, a temporary interruption of funding in February 2018, coincided with a market rally. This move occurred during an oversold technical rebound and not as a reaction to the shutdown itself.
The broader pattern is consistent. Closes tend to be drivers of volatility, not drivers of trend. Bitcoin usually reinforces its current trend rather than reverses it.
Miners’ data shows stress, not strength
Recent data on the chain adds another layer of caution. According to CryptoQuant, many US mining companies have declined Production has increased dramatically in recent days Because the winter storms caused the electricity grid.
The daily production of Bitcoin has decreased significantly in companies such as CleanSpark, Riot Platforms, Marathon Digital and IREN. While production could temporarily reduce retail supply, it also points to operational pressures in the mining sector.
Sponsored
Sponsored
Historically, supply constraints in mining have not been enough to compensate Broader sales driven by aggregate Unless demand conditions are strong. Current demand signals remain weak.
Realized losses increase
Net profit and loss (NRPL) data supports a defensive outlook. See the last few weeks Ascension In realized losseswith a decrease in significant increases in earnings compared to before in 2025.
This suggests that investors are exiting their positions at unfavorable prices rather than turning capital around with confidence. This behavior usually corresponds to the distribution of the late cycle and phases of risk reduction, not to the accumulation.
In this context, negative macroeconomic titles tend to accelerate downward swings rather than accelerating sustained demonstrations.
Sponsored
Sponsored
How Bitcoin could react on January 30
If the US government goes into a shutdown on January 30, Bitcoin will likely react more like a risk asset than a hedge.
The most likely outcome is higher short-term volatility with a downward bias. The removal of the January lows will be in line with historical closing behavior and current market structure. Any recovery is likely to be technical and short-lived unless broader liquidity conditions improve.
A strong rally driven solely by closing stocks seems unlikely. Bitcoin rarely rises after closing without simultaneous positive flow and sentiment changes, which are absent today.
Bitcoin is not in danger of being closed from a position of strength. ETF inflows, increased realized losses, worker pressure and rejected resistance levels point to a cautious setup.
As January 30 approaches, the risk of a shutdown could be a test of the already fragile market confidence.
For now, history and data suggest that Bitcoin’s response will reflect existing momentum rather than challenge it.
