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US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to flow out of the bottom as the cryptocurrency’s Fear and Greed Index drops to 11, reflecting extreme fear.
Individual investors have stayed out of the market during this downturn, while data shows that whales are the main buyers amid this downturn.
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ETF inflows and lack of fragmentation indicate a market shift
US Bitcoin spot funds saw continued capital flight, with holdings falling from 441,000 BTC on October 10 to around 271,000 BTC in mid-November. This represents a sharp reversal from institutional support earlier this year.
Second For data from Farside InvestorsBitcoin ETFs recorded four consecutive days of outflows, extending the defensive tone that dominated the month. Early in the period, redemptions peaked at more than $800 million in one day, highlighting how much sentiment has deteriorated. The last figure shows a much lower inflow of about $60 million, but it still indicates that buyers are still cautious and the momentum has not changed yet.
Average spot order volume indicators show that retail traders have not returned, even with a decline Bitcoin Almost 27% from its high of October 6 at $126,272.76. indicate Stock market data From Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, and OKX to larger order sizes, highlighting whale activity rather than small buyers in the market.
decrease Index of fear and greed at 11, which highlights serious market concerns. Historically, these levels are associated with the bottom of the market, but individual investors remain cautious and reluctant to react. In the morning hours in Asia, Bitcoin traded between $91,000 and $92,000, more than 3% in 24 hours and 13-14% in the week. decrease ethereum Briefly under $3,000, Solana reached about $130, more than 5% in 24 hours and 21% in the week.
Whales are piling up amid market weakness
While retail investors sit on the sidelines, the big players continue to pile in aggressively. A whale bought 10,275 ETH at $3,032 for 31.16 million USDT in the 24 hours before November 17, based on Onchain monitoring with OnchainLens. Between November 12 and November 17, this title received a total of 13,612 shares for $41.89 million, at an average price of $3,077.
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Perpetual holders of Bitcoin – wallets that have never recorded outflows – support what CryptoQuant describes it It is the largest cumulative increase in recent sales. rose The constant demand from the holders From 159,000 BTC to 345,000 BTC, they represent the largest absorption in several cycles. This significant accumulation occurred even when the price decreased, highlighting a clear contrast between long-term and short-term market behaviors.
This divergence between whaling and selling caution highlights a shift in market dynamics. However, Cryptoquant CEO Ki Young Joo points out that the current decline involves long-term coin holders rotating coins among themselves rather than new money entering the market. This suggests that the decline does not represent the beginning of a new bear market, although the current conditions may not represent the classic buying moment that the retail sector is looking for.
Structural changes and institutional dynamics
This decline is different from previous crypto winters. Major financial institutions, including JPMorgan, now accept Bitcoin as collateral for loans despite its weak price. This developed infrastructure provides greater support compared to previous down cycles. Deeper liquidity is available, which helps stabilize the market.
Technical signals remain pessimistic at the moment. decrease Bitcoin More than 20% from its highest level in history; Recently, its 50-day moving average fell below its 200-day moving average – a so-called “death cross”.
Macroeconomic factors add more pressure. The Federal Reserve has delayed interest rate cuts, and global central banks continue to tighten regulatory tightening. The decrease in the liquidity of Treasuries creates headwinds for risk assets. However, analysts see long-term macro trends, such as rising sovereign debt and ongoing geopolitical tensions, supporting Bitcoin going forward.
Mining companies adapt accordingly. confirm Frank Holmes, CEO of HIVE Digital Technologies, said that his company will continue to mine and maintain Bitcoin, unlike competitors who are moving towards high-performance computing. He emphasizes that building third-tier data centers for GPUs is both expensive and complex, so his mining and retention strategy will continue despite the fluctuations.
