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Bitcoin’s sharp drop from $110,000 to around $80,000 is linked to a massive sell-off of early whales with a base cost close to $16,000. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju notes that on-chain metrics indicate that Bitcoin is now in the “shoulder” phase of its cycle, indicating limited potential in the short term.
This sale creates institutional pressure from ETFs and MicroStrategy, forming the cryptocurrency forecast for 2025. Interview with Upbit’s UpbitcareKi Young Joo offers a data-driven look at the changing landscape for Bitcoin investors and the forces influencing the current market structure.
Early Bitcoin bulls increase selling pressure
Ki Young Joo explains that the current market is formed by the competition between two large groups of whales. The old whales, who hold Bitcoin at an average cost close to $16,000, began to make significant profits, selling at a rate measured in hundreds of millions of US dollars per day. This continued selling has put strong downward pressure on… Bitcoin price.
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At the same time, institutional whales in Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy have accumulated significant positions. However, their purchasing power does not correspond to the volume of the first whales sold. According to Jisoo, wallets containing more than 10,000 BTC for more than 155 days usually have an average core cost of about $38,000. Traders on Binance have entered positions close to $50,000, many market participants are in a profit and can sell if necessary.
The CEO of CryptoQuant indicates that the inflows of ETFs and MicroStrategy have stimulated the market before 2025. However, those flows are now decreasing. Outflows are beginning to dominate the market landscape. For example, data from Farside Investors Bitcoin units in circulation recorded net inflows of $42.8 million on November 26, 2025, bringing cumulative inflows to $62.68 billion. Despite these numbers, the ongoing sale of first whales continues to exceed the institutional accumulation.
Market cycle analysis indicates limited upside
On-chain metrics for profit and loss provide crucial insight into market cycles. Joe’s analysis using the P&L indicator with a 365-day moving average reveals that the market has entered a “shoulder” phase. This late cycle condition indicates limited growth potential and an increased risk of correction.
The rating coefficient reflects a neutral to stable outlook. In previous cycles, each new dollar caused an inflated increase in market value. Now, this effect is gone. This indicates that the market is less efficient to generate significant earnings.
Joe doesn’t expect a dramatic 70-80% drop. However, corrections up to 30% are considered reasonable. A drop from $100,000 could mean Bitcoin falling to around $70,000. I use data from OKX’s long and short call reports, leverage reports, and buy and sell flows to support this view.
Joe stresses the importance of a data-driven approach. in Recent postinstructing marketers to use metrics to persuade, not speculation. His focus remains on the interpretation of chain data, stock market activity and market structure.
This comprehensive analysis provides an evidence-based assessment of the series. When the first whales of Bitcoin continue to sell on earnings, institutions are facing a tough climate. With high leverage ratios, neutral valuation equations, and a late cycle situation, the market has limited potential for a significant rebound in the near future.
