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Since mid-2025, Bitcoin has shown signs of decoupling from global money supply growth M2. By 2026, this disconnect has become more apparent.
The historical correlation between these two factors has been the basis of many bullish predictions. Now, analysts are very divided on what this phenomenon means for 2026.
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Analysts are divided in their interpretations of the relationship between Bitcoin and the global M2.
He continues a report A January issue of Fidelity Digital Assets expressed confidence in a positive relationship between the M2 money supply and the price of Bitcoin.
Fidelity confirms that Bitcoin bull cycles usually coincide with periods when the M2 indicator accelerates. Because of its scarcity, Bitcoin absorbs excess capital much more strongly than other assets.
“With the start of a new cycle of monetary easing around the world and with the end of the Fed’s QT program, we are likely to see the rate of growth continue to rise throughout 2026, which is a positive catalyst for the price of Bitcoin.” — I mentioned Fidelity.
He argues Analysts support this view that gold and silver have absorbed the demand that has surrounded inflation in recent periods. They also say that the reprinting of money in countries has become a major driver for Bitcoin.
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Analyst MartyParty takes a bolder stance. Compare Bitcoin price with global money supply M2 using a 50-day lag. This week is expected to be the time when the price of Bitcoin rebounds To keep The growth of the money supply.
“Bitcoin vs Global Liquidity – 50 Days Lag. M2 Says We Will Jump Here – January 12th”. — I waited MartyParty.
However, Fidelity’s chart shows that the annual growth of Bitcoin and the annual rate of the global M2 index have lost correlation over the past year. This divergence becomes wider at the beginning of 2026. Bitcoin shows a negative year-on-year growth, while the Global M2 index grows annually by more than 10%. This situation raised doubts among other analysts.
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appears Notes from Mr. Crypto that the periods when the price of Bitcoin decouples from the M2 growth often represent the main peaks of the market. These stages are usually followed by a bear market that lasts two to four years.
Meanwhile, analyst Charles Edwards takes a completely different position to explain this phenomenon.
He argues that 2025 was the time when the risk of Bitcoin encryption being broken by a quantum computer became real. Therefore, the separation from M2 reflects this risk.
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“This is the first time that Bitcoin has decoupled from the flow of money and global liquidity. Why? 2025 was the first year that Bitcoin entered the quantum event horizon. The time period for a non-zero probability of a quantum machine cracking Bitcoin’s encryption is now less than the expected time for Bitcoin to update. Money is repositioning itself in consideration of taking this risk.” — He said Charles Edwards.
In short, the division among analysts reflects the growing complexity of the Bitcoin market. The bull camp follows traditional historical patterns supported by the Fed’s interest rate cuts and money printing. The bear camp focuses on unprecedented events related to technological risks.
Bitcoin also enters 2026 facing other risks. These risks include: About yen transfer trade The possibilities The outbreak of the Third World War With the complexity of global economic and geopolitical conditions.
These risks do not necessarily mean the end of Bitcoin. It can also create opportunities for many investors. These investors continue to believe that, no matter how the world changes, Bitcoin will remain a long-term store of valueas it has shown throughout its history of more than 15 years.
