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Cardano had one of the weakest months in the market. The price of ADA fell by more than 31% in November, although Bitcoin and Ethereum recovered by 6-8% in the same period. In the last seven days, the price of Cardano rose by only 1.9%, which shows a very weak momentum.
Major supply and big money signals now point to deeper weakness unless conditions stabilize soon.
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Supply pressure as the flow of money weakens
It indicates Cardano’s recent move There is clear pressure on two fronts: the flow of large funds and the movement of coins in age groups.
The first signal comes from the CMF (Chaikin Money Flow) indicator, which reflects the power of big money. Between November 24 and November 28, the price of ADA reached a higher high, but the CMF indicator formed a lower high and then broke its downtrend, which was in place since October 11.
The same crash happened on November 2, and ADA fell more than 20% after that move. The CMF indicator is also below zero this time, which usually means that large capital is withdrawing instead of entering.
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The trend is clear. Between November 10 and November 17, the flow of large funds fell sharply by more than 240%, and ADA fell by more than 36% in the same period and also in the days that followed.
Since ADA strongly reacts to CMF trendsThis new collapse points to other downside risks.
The second red flag comes from the coins spent age range, which tracks how many coins move across all pools in a day.
On November 29, it fell to a monthly low of 93.23 million ADA. But instead of stabilizing at the end of the month, the value jumped to 114.66 million – an increase of almost 23%. It is now at a weekly high.
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The higher coins spent means more supply moving, and when this happens, as the flow of money weakens, the pressure on the price often increases.
The two signals are now aligned. Large flows decrease at the same time, and more supply is released. Together, they create a backdrop where… The ADA price is in trouble To keep any recovery short-term.
The key levels show that the price of Cardano has not finished the correction yet
Since November 11, The ADA has been in a clear downward trend The broader structure has not changed. Trend based extension levels indicate where the price of Cardano could move if the pressure continues.
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If ADA loses support at $0.386, the next levels will appear at $0.354 and $0.302. These are the natural continuation areas for this downward trend, especially if the CMF remains below zero and currency spending activity remains high.
A recovery is still possible, but it needs a clear break above $0.438 with a full close of the candle. So the ADA can try to move back towards $0.607, but this needs to change under two conditions:
The CMF should return to above zero, and the currencies past the reading should calm down again. Historically, the higher the age category of spent coins, the more ADA struggles to support any recovery. The current increase reinforces this risk.
Currently, the price of Cardano is trading near $0.419 and shows no signs of reversal. Without an improvement in cash flow and supply movement, the 31% monthly decline may not be the last stage of this correction.
