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Positive internal factors, such as ETFs and digital index funds, do not fully explain why capital has continued to flow out of the market since the middle of last year. The correlation between Bitcoin and US software stocks offers a new perspective.
Recent data highlights how private credit has come to dominate the cryptocurrency market.
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Strong correlation between Bitcoin and US software stocks
According to a Grayscale report, recent Bitcoin price movements have closely followed high-growth software stocks. This behavior shows that Bitcoin is trading more like a growth asset than “digital gold”.
The Grayscale graph shows a close synchronization between US software stocks and Bitcoin from the beginning of 2024 to the present. This correlation suggests that the same fundamental forces have driven both markets over the past two years.
“The fact that Bitcoin moved in tandem with software stocks during the last decline suggests that the decline was more likely related to broad risk reduction in growth-oriented portfolios rather than unique cryptocurrency issues.
Identifying this common driver helps explain the recent decline of cryptocurrencies and supports a clearer assessment of recovery potential.
Grayscale attributes the selling pressure mainly to US investors. This trend is seen in Bitcoin trading at a discount on Coinbase compared to Binance.
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Additionally, US-listed Bitcoin funds recorded net inflows of approx $318 million Since the beginning of February. These flows have added additional pressure on prices.
Because private credit is at the heart of the problem
Other reports suggest a deeper cause. face the industry Private credit worth $3 trillion Now new risks are driven by the development of artificial intelligence.
Private credit indicates To non-bank loans. Large funds such as Blue Owl (OWL), Ares (ARES), Apollo (APO), KKR and TPG usually manage these loans.
These funds are lent to private companies or capital-intensive businesses, often at higher interest rates than banks. Software accounts for a large portion of these loans. PitchBook data shows that software accounts for approx 17% of BDC investments by number of dealsIt is the second largest number after business services.
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The data also indicates that the relationship between software stocks and Bitcoin has lasted for more than five years. This model is not new. It supports the view that private credit flows have significantly influenced the cryptocurrency market. Funds seem to treat Bitcoin and altcoins as if they were software companies.
“Bitcoin behaves like a very experimental technical asset, driven by liquidity, growth expectations and valuation cycles in the software market. This is how smart capital really sees Bitcoin. This also means that the AI ​​sector has direct points of conflict with Bitcoin, something that few talk about.” Comment Joao Widson, founder of Alfractal.
Fears are mounted About artificial intelligence. Models like Close work 4.6 From Anthropic Automated programming tools can replace or reduce the demand for traditional software. Investors fear that software companies will lose customers. Recurring revenues may decline. They can then default on the loan.
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UBS has warned that US private credit default rates could rise to… 13%.
He said UBS strategists: “It’s still too early to say exactly when a large-scale AI transformation will happen, but we believe the trend will accelerate this year.”
When private credit is under pressure, capital conditions tighten. They cut off new loans, demand early repayment, or sell assets. These actions damage the performance of software actions and extend to the cryptocurrency market.
Dan, head of research at Coinpro, a cryptocurrency education company, argues that the pressure on private credit has been continued since the middle of 2025. This pressure explains why… BTC starts to decouple from liquidity at that time.
“Bitcoin has a strong correlation with software stocks, but what is the common cause? It is private credit, which is very involved in cryptocurrencies and software, and has seen the pressure since the middle of 2025, which is why Bitcoin coupled with liquidity in the middle of 2025.” He said Dan.
This explains the analyst’s opinion A reason that many investors may have overlooked. This factor has affected the digital currency market in recent months. It also highlights the broader risks associated with private credit defaults and offers a different perspective on how the advancement of artificial intelligence may negatively impact the cryptocurrency market.
