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Arthur Hayes stands firm on his prediction that Bitcoin could reach $200,000-250,000 by the end of 2025, despite the October-November crash and market fear.
He said on the Milky Way program on November 26 that the recent drop to $80,000 represented the bottom of the cycle and argued that the global liquidity of the dollar had turned a corner.
“I’ll be with him,” Hayes said when asked if his goal of $200,000-250,000 still remains with a few weeks left in the year. “If I’m wrong, it doesn’t matter… I’m long, I’m happy, no matter what.”
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Hayes describes $80,000 as the minimum after a liquidity shock
Description of Hayes Movement Completed by the rise of Bitcoin to $ 125,000 to $ 80,000 on this Liquidity driven resetnot the beginning ofNew bear market.
He said the US dollar liquidity index based on Bloomberg showed approx $1 trillion liquidated From the dollar money markets between July and now.
This came from the US Treasury after filling his account andThe Federal Reserve continues its quantitative easing.
According to Hayes, Bitcoin has ignored this bleeding in liquidity for a few months due to ETF inflows andVersions of Digital Asset Treasury (DAT). That hid the damage.
Once those flows turned, “Bitcoin fell back to where it should have been based on the dollar’s liquidity position,” Hayes said.
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The institutional bid for the index fund was just a base trade
Hayes confirmed this A very popular ETF offering It has been widely misunderstood by retail traders.
The biggest holders of BlackRock’s IBIT fund are companies like Brevan Howard, Goldman Sachs, Millennium, Jane Street and Avenue.
He explained that they are not long-term Bitcoin believers, but rather traders who take advantage of price differences.
“They’ll take an IBIT ETF, buy it, deposit it with their broker, then sell a futures contract … They’re making 7 to 10% a year on that trade,” Hayes said.
With funding rates falling in September and October, these players settled the deal from… Sell ​​ETFs and buy futures contractswhich turned investment fund flows into negative.
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Hayes said that retail investors misinterpreted the outflows as “institutions unloading Bitcoin,” not realizing that the institutions were simply unpacking a financing strategy.
Hayes also highlighted the role of digital asset custodians, who issue equity and debt to buy Bitcoin when… The net market capitalization trades at a higher price than the nominal value.
When those stocks fell to… Nominal price or lessstated that this model has collapsed. DATs are no longer able to issue new securities in a positive manner.
Some even had an incentive To sell Bitcoin and buy their own shares.
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“All we know is that we’ve basically hit bottom in the liquidity chart and the future trend is higher,” he said. “That’s why I think the drop to $80,000 in Bitcoin recently is the bottom.”
He expects the next bit of liquidity to come less from the Federal Reserve and more from… Commercial banking systemciting early signs of renewed bank lending and policy plans for a credit-backed industrial buildout.
Why Bitcoin is “stuck” around $90,000 right now
When asked why Bitcoin is trading near $90,000 if… The liquidity outlook is betterHayes explained that there is uncertainty about how and how aggressively the new US administration will actually create credit.
He said the markets are always in demand How much and when In which another “$10 trillion” of liquidity will be obtained.
Promises about bank loans, industrial policies and a new head of the Fed will remain political talk until they turn into concrete programs and flows.
“When we really start to see things happen, the markets will price further in where to put this dollar liquidity and risky assets like Bitcoin will accelerate their price appreciation,” he said.
