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As the cryptocurrency market continues to fluctuate, experts believe that we may soon enter the last phase of this rise, but they also expect another drop. However, there are factors that hinder the recovery of Bitcoin (BTC).
The cryptocurrency market saw a big rally last week, but it declined over the weekend and started this week at a lower price.
Looking at the price of Bitcoin, it has fallen in the last 24 hours from an intraday high of $95,467 to a low of $92,263. At the time of writing (Monday afternoon (UTC)), Bitcoin is trading at $92,973.
It is worth noting that it increased by 2.6% for the week and 5.4% for the month.
Is the fifth wave coming?
In a recent email, John Glover, the company’s chief financial officer, said: Leiden In terms of digital financial services, we are currently witnessing the fourth phase of the bull run. We may soon enter the fifth and final phase of this wave.
So, he expects that Bitcoin’s target price range for the current wave will be between $71,000 and $84,000, according to him. The chart below shows that each control wave takes an ABC shape.
Now, the question is whether the yellow path represents a complete fourth wave or if we will follow the purple path and see another drop to $71,000, Glover wrote.
He added: “Based on the analysis of C waves within this control system, it appears that it may go down further.”
Confirmation will be based on one of the following two circumstances:
- Break and close above $104,000 (under wave A), which will confirm that we followed the yellow path and now we have started the fifth wave,
- Or the price drops below $80,000, which means moving to $70,000 before we go higher.
As a reminder, the fourth wave is the fourth part of the five upward cycles. This is according to a well-known price forecasting model By Elliott Wave Theory .
According to this model, during the five phases of the uptrend, the fourth wave falls and corrects the situation set by the third wave. Then the fifth wave begins, rising to a new peak. After that, three downtrend waves begin.
Maybe another drop
Nick Bockrin, a digital asset expert and co-founder of Coin Bureau, reported that the price of Bitcoin has fallen below the critical level of $94,000. This made way for an escape route in January.
He added that the sell-off was driven by price issues and political tensions, particularly from the United States.
“We may see further declines from here unless buyers step in, with strong support around $88,000. For now, a slight pullback has brought Bitcoin back above $93,000, but nothing major.”
In the United States, markets are closed today for the holiday, and volatility remains. Bokrin says that the possibility of a significant decrease in the price of Bitcoin depends on whether it closes the day below $90,000. That could prompt ETF holders to sell their positions when the US market opens on Tuesday.
Finally, while the value of altcoins is decreasing, the analyst says that precious metals are seeing a significant increase. “Unfortunately, investors who are waiting for a transition from metals to altcoins will be very disappointed, as the uncertainty and concerns surrounding Greenland will only get worse before they change,” concludes Bockrin.
Bitcoin: a sound hedge against institutional decline
said Samer Hassan, senior market analyst at a global wholesaler XS.com The recent decline in Bitcoin’s price is due to a combination of profit and market volatility, Hassan wrote. This comes after a new rise in US political threats, as well as tensions between the political and trade sectors. These risks hinder Bitcoin’s major recovery.
These factors include the criminal investigation of US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell, and the suspended confirmation process for the bank’s new head. This “impeded a change in leadership at the central bank.”
He says the Fed’s loss of independence “could sow the seeds for the end of the dollar’s dominance, which could redefine the global financial system,” says National Australia Bank’s Ray Attrill.
This affects the opinion of the cryptocurrency market, as Hassan says: “Doubts about the independence of the Fed often lead to a flight from the dollar economy.”
For cryptocurrency markets, this “political dollar” issue is a good thing in the long run, even with low prices. If investors lose confidence in the US government’s debt and the independence of the Federal Reserve, fixed assets like Bitcoin and physical commodities like gold, which have already seen prices rise, become safe havens for institutional collapse.
Meanwhile, there are international conflicts that need to be considered, and these conflicts are mainly between the United States and China, and between the United States and Europe. Recent tensions have centered on Donald Trump’s threat to annex Greenland.
Trump’s threats to Europe remove $ 875 million from the crypto space as Bitcoin falls 3% to $ 92,000 amid the geopolitical market.#Trump #Europe #Tariffs #Bitcoinhttps://t.co/heRs8hxlkV
– Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) January 19, 2026
Also, the coming days will see the release of new data on the rate of inflation in the United States, including the World Economic Forum that is being held in Davos. A sharp decline in commodity prices could end the prospect of a near-term interest rate cut, forcing a reevaluation of bond and stock prices alike.
Finally, a “sudden tightening” by the Bank of Japan or its intervention to save the yen could lead to “a major financial crisis, causing tremors in already troubled Western markets.”
“Ultimately, we see a shift from ‘market imperatives’ to ‘geopolitical theatre’ as the main driver of price movements,” concluded Hassan.
A note Are we entering the fifth wave? Experts say that another drop in the price of Bitcoin is still possible appeared for the first time Cryptonews Arabic.
