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Bitcoin fell below $100,000 for the second time in a week, losing 12% in a month. The overall crypto market has lost more than $700 billion in the past month, with the Fear and Greed Index falling to “extreme fear.”
So let’s analyze all these market indicators to indicate a bear market? We analyze technical and historical data.
Sentiment signals at bear market levels
It reflects the index of fear and greed to 10 A similar intense fear at the beginning of 2022 and June 2022, both confirmed … Bear market stages.
- Yesterday: 16
- Last week: 20
- Last month: 28
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It shows the trend Accelerate fear And there is no stability in the sense. Bear markets usually start with this kind of persistent pressure of fear.
In any case, the feeling alone does not confirm a bear market – it only indicates capitulation or exhaustion.
Bitcoin broke its most important support in the bull market
The 365-day moving average forms the long-term structural axis.
Current status:
- The 365-day moving average is close to $102,000.
- Bitcoin is trading lower than this.
- The collapse reflects December 2021, when the price lost the same moving average and the bear market began.
Historically:
| Corsican | The missing meaning? | Result |
| 2018 | Yes | Complete bear market |
| 2021 | Yes | Complete bear market |
| 2025 | Yes (currently) | The risk of a down phase is increasing |
Failure to restore this level quickly often confirms a change in the circulatory system. This is one of the strongest technical arguments for a bear market turnaround.
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The cost base on the chain shows the initial capitulation, not the top of the distribution
The realized price of UTXO for 6-12 months is currently approx $94,600. Bitcoin price is currently slightly above this level.
This is important because:
- These holders bought during the ETF rally.
- They represent “buyers on faith in a bull market cycle.”
- When his position enters a loss, the structure of the market weakens.
In 2021, The price of Bitcoin is below the cost of this group It was one of the last signals before an extended downtrend. This is the first time cost pressure has picked up since 2022.
This supports the idea of a break in the average cycle, and not yet a general downward trend.
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The RSI shows oversold conditions, typical of mid-cycle crashes
RSI readings for the overall market:
- Average RSI for cryptocurrencies: ٤٣٠٩
- Bitcoin’s RSI is among the lowest among major assets
- alone 2.5% An asset is in an overbought zone
- no longer Assets are in the oversold zone
This looks like May-July 2021, August 2023 and August 2024. All were Average cycle correctionIt is not the end of a downward cycle. When the RSI remains in the oversold zone for weeks, the downward momentum is confirmed.
Currently, RSI is shown Pressure, but not before the trend reverses.
The MACD indicator shows a strong divergence in the market
The standard MACD is currently 0.02. This refers to Weak momentum returns to the upside. In addition, 58% of market assets have positive momentum.
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However, Bitcoin is sitting In the deep negative zone While altcoins are mixed.
When BTC has a negative MACD, but the market still has 50%+ positive momentum, the market is in Transitional phase Instead of being in a complete downtrend.
In bear markets, 90%+ of assets show a negative MACD at the same time. Now, this is not the case.
The cryptocurrency market is not in Bear market Confirmed – as in a mid-cycle collapse with an increasing probability of becoming a bear market if two conditions are met.
These are the three conditions that would have confirm Bear market operation:
- Bitcoin remains below the 365 day moving average for 4-6 weeks. This triggered every market low in 2014, 2018 and 2022.
- Long-term holders continue to be widely distributed. If the sale of long-term holders exceeds 1M BTC in 60 days, the top is in the cycle.
- The MACD turned to become completely negative throughout the market. We’re not there yet.
In general, cryptocurrencies have yet to reach a bear market, but the current collapse puts the market in a high-risk zone where a bear market could form if Bitcoin fails to regain long-term support soon.
