Analysts expect annual growth of 3.2% in the US GDP for the third quarter before the release of official data

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will publish its first preliminary estimate of third quarter GDP on Tuesday at 13:30 GMT.

The data is expected to show an annual growth of 3.2%, after an expansion of 3.8% in the previous quarter.

Sponsored

Sponsored

Markets expect continued strong GDP growth over the three months to September

It shows that the rate of growth in the United States has accelerated After a contraction of 0.5% during the three months to March, and an expected reading of 3.2%, although lower than the previous reading, indicates good economic progress.

In fact, growth in the US doesn’t seem to be a problem these days. Rather, the fire is on Weak labor marketAnd also on Federal Reserve (Fed) and The future of monetary policies, which is clearly linked to poor employment.

In addition, the GDP price index – also known as the GDP slope – will be released, which measures inflation in all goods and services produced at home, including exports, but excluding imports. The index reached 2.1% in the second quarter, which is a very encouraging level, considering the 3.8% registered at the beginning of the year.

Additionally, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (annually adjusted) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.5%, according to the latest estimate. The number is not an official forecast, but as the Atlanta Fed website notes, it is used “as a rolling estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current quarter.”

But there is an important note: show that the creation of jobs is powerful in all The second quarter helped stabilize consumption levels significantly. But the situation may be different in the third quarter, because the labor market has become more flexible than the Fed considers comfortable.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, according to the latest Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, beating expectations of 4.4%. 64,000 jobs were added in the same monthHowever, readings from previous months were revised lower, meaning that employment in August and September combined was 33,000 lower than previously reported. October data has not been released due to the government shutdown, which has clearly worsened the employment situation.

Sponsored

Sponsored

So when you follow the forecasts and the GDPNow model of the Atlanta Fed, it looks like GDP will be above 3%. However, a deteriorating labor market could lower the number significantly.

When will GDP data be released, and how could it affect the US Dollar Index?

Note first that the US GDP report will be published at 13:30 GMT on Tuesday, and is expected to impact the US Dollar (USD). The market may have overreacted given the ongoing winter holidays and the lower trading volumes that usually accompany them.

Given the general weakness in the US dollar, a negative report is likely to have a wider impact on the US currency and push it lower. On the other hand, a better number than expected can give some hope to buyers of US dollars, however, it is unlikely to change the prevailing downward trend.

Valeria Bednarik, senior analyst at FX Street, notes:

The US Dollar Index (DXY) was around 98.30 before the announcement, not far from the December low of 97.87. Technically, DXY is bearish. On the daily chart, the 100-period simple moving average at around 98.60 is attracting the attention of sellers and capping the upside. In the same chart, the bearish 20-period SMA is accelerating its pace above the larger average, reflecting increasing selling pressure. Finally, the same chart shows that the technical indicators maintain downward slopes in the negative levels, consistent with the lower lows to come.

Bednarik adds:

A weak GDP report could push the DXY towards the monthly average, with possible additional declines up to 97.46, the intraday low on September 30. If the declines continue, the index should approach the 97.00 level, where the decline is likely to slow down. Friday’s high of 98.42 represents immediate resistance ahead of the 100-day SMA at 98.60. After crossing it, 99.00 appears as the next obstacle.