A Coinbase official explains two ways in which quantum computing could be a threat to Bitcoin

Coinbase’s head of investment research, David Dong, noted that advances in quantum computing bring risks beyond the security of Bitcoin’s private keys, which could cause long-term challenges to the network’s economic and security models.

However, he stressed that current quantum technology is still far from being able to compromise Bitcoin’s cryptographic defenses. This makes these concerns a long-term consideration rather than an immediate risk.

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There are two distinct threats to Bitcoin’s fundamentals

In a detailed post, Dong explained that the main risk will emerge at a point often called “Q Day”. Essentially, Q-day describes a hypothetical future moment in which quantum computing becomes powerful enough to mine Bitcoin’s encryption by running algorithms like Shor and Grover.

He added that Bitcoin’s security is based on two cryptographic foundations: ECDSA, which ensures transaction signature and ownership, and SHA-256, which supports proof-of-work mining and blockchain integrity. According to him,

“This means that quantum computers pose two effectively separate threats.”

Dong pointed out that quantum-enabled systems could undermine the cryptographic guarantees of private keys. This in turn increases the risk of unauthorized spending by vulnerable Bitcoin addresses. He said that this risk associated with the firm is divided into two dimensions.

He added: “Long-range attacks against outputs whose public keys are already exposed on the chain, and short-range attacks that can lead to their public keys being spent on Membol.”.”

According to Dong, about 6.51 million bitcoins, about 32.7% of the total supply, could be vulnerable to long-term quantum attacks from the 900,000 block. This vulnerability is fundamentally linked Reuse titles The specific scripts that expose the public keys directly on the chain.

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These systems include push to public key (P2PK), nuda multi-signature (P2MS), and Taproot (P2TR). Early Bitcoin holdings, often associated with the Satoshi era, make up a notable portion of the older P2PK output.

“Each exit is vulnerable to short-term attacks at the time of spending, which raises the importance of a broad migration towards quantum-resistant signatures, even if the probability of a successful attack remains low in the short term,” said the executive.

In addition to major security issues, Dong pointed out that quantum-based mining It can create efficiency Challenge The economy of consent Current security and network of Bitcoin.

“We believe that quantum mining itself remains a lower priority resource at present due to scale limitations, making signature migration the central issue,” he said.

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How Bitcoin can prepare for quantum risks

In the second part of his analysis, Dong explains a set of Mitigation methods Of the risks associated with the quantity. Most notable is the long-term integration of post-quantum cryptography into the network, based on algorithms designed to resist quantum attacks.

He pointed to the US National Institute of Standards and Technology’s list of post-quantum encryption standards, which includes CRYSTALS-Dilithium, SPHINCS+ and FALCON.

Dong also cited research from Chincode Labs, which shows two possible paths. A rapid quantum leap would require an emergency migration plan that could be implemented within two years.

If progress continues gradually, a long-term approach will allow Bitcoin to adopt quantum-resistant signatures through a soft fork. He explains that this path can take up to seven years.

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This reflects the practical challenges of larger signature sizes, slower verification, and the need to modify wallets, nodes, and fee markets. In addition, some technical proposals such as BIP-360, BIP-347 and Hourglass also seek to address the quantum threat.

“Best practices include avoiding address reuse, moving vulnerable UTXOs to unique destinations, and developing customer-oriented materials to establish quantum-ready operations. This approach supports current knowledge that vulnerable scripts are not available in production, and that box limits per address reduce the risk of concentration.” He indicated.

Finally, the CEO stressed that quantum computing is not considered an “imminent threat”. This assessment is in line with many industry voices. Experts, including… Jameson Loeb, co-founder of CasaAdam Back, CEO of Blockstream, and Charles Hoskinson, Founder of Cardanothat quantum risks are still distant and not urgent.

However, some remain cautious. David Carvalho of the Norris Protocol warns that Add a compromise during Two to three years. Even the quantum clock project predicts doomsday Possible encryption breach Bitcoin from March 8, 2028.