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The first wave of monads in December lost momentum. The token rose by more than 51% between December 1 and 3, but failed twice at the same level, forming a clear double top that usually indicates stress. At the same time, the Monad price indicators that usually support a continuation have changed, which shows that the big buyers, savvy traders and derivatives participants are away.
With support waning and liquidity left on the order books, Monad (MON) is nearing the lows last seen on listing day.
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A double top forms with weak money flow
The first signs of weakness appeared on the 4-hour chart. Monad (MON) price approached the $0.033 area twice and was rejected each time, confirming a double top.
The failure coincides with the “cash flow of the chain”, which measures whether money enters or leaves the asset, which fails to rise above the zero line. Staying below zero shows that the big buyers of the pip were not confident enough to push the breakout.
Now the CMF has broken below the rising trend line, a sign that demand from large portfolios is weakening instead of growing. When larger pip holders reduce buying pressure during a retracement, the wave often loses its foundation.
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Smart money reflects this behavior. The Smart Money Index tried to recover, but it fluctuated rapidly and is now heading towards its signal line. This combination usually intervenes first during short-term corrections, but this time the indicator shows hesitation, which indicates that confidence in the rebound has faded.
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If it falls below the trend line that led the last rebound in the price of Monad, the hope for a short-term recovery becomes weaker.
The double top, CMF decline, and smart money participation form the first wave of pressure against the last in the MON wave. But timely issues are not the only ones at play.
Derivatives traders close the exposure as liquidity exits the market
The derivatives market adds to the Moon a second wave of more powerful pressure.
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In the last seven days, several large business groups have significantly reduced their exposure to the terms of the perpetual contract.
The top 100 reduced their site addresses by 98%, the smart money reduced their exposure by 40.87%, traders with public figures reduced by 80.52%, andThe whales are gone For 97.99% of their positions, perennial winners—traders who usually catch trends well—reduce their exposure by 66.37%.
These are not just signs of aggressive selling. These signals show that traders are closing their positions, withdrawing liquidity, and exiting the market completely. What remains now are mostly net short positions, which highlights the pessimism.
This type of wholesale discounting leaves the price in a fragile state. With spot buyers slowing down, the smart money dwindling, and derivatives liquidity disappearing, the Monad doesn’t have enough support to absorb larger selling flows without sliding into deeper levels.
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Key levels point towards a clear downward path for Monad price
Monad trades Close to $0.029, sitting above the support of $0.028 that has held since December 2. If the coin loses this level, the next support is close to $0.022.
That would be a 25% drop from current levels. A clear break below $0.022 reveals the possibility of a reconsideration of the post-launch bottom around $0.020, the same area where the Monad price traded shortly after its listing on Coinbase.
For the structure to return to the side again, Monad needs restoration $0.038, which is the main Fibonacci level that limited its growth. Breaking this level opens the way towards $0.043 and maybe $0.049.
Until this happens, the tendency is to meet, and the exit is coordinated through large portfolios, smart money and derivatives ​​​​to keep the pressure on the side.
