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The price of XRP failed to join Bitcoin and Ethereum in its weekly gains and is still trading in the narrow range it has held since mid-November.
At the same time, a bullish signal on the chain reached a three-month high, which is usually a strong setup for a recovery. But the price of XRP is low. We understand why.
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Weak activity hits in 3 months, but long-term holders continue to sell
The story begins with spent coins. Coins spent measure the number of coins Old XRP that moves dailyThe index has collapsed from 186.36 million XRP on November 15 to only 16.32 million XRP now. This is a sharp drop of 91% and the lowest level in three months.
When the old supply stops, the selling pressure drops dramatically. Therefore, the stagnation, which increases when the coins spent decreases, is now at its strongest level in three months. Under normal market conditions, this change would only support a stronger XRP price.
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But the price of XRP did not react because the belief groups moved in the other direction.
HODL waves, which track the supply held by each age segment, show a clear distribution of older holders in the past month. The group 6-12 months decreased from 26.18% of the supply to 21.65%. The 1-2 year group decreased from 9.34% to 8.61%. Even the 2-3 year group decreased from 14.58% to 14.12%.
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These groups form the backbone of the trend force because they control supply, which rarely moves. When they reduce their participation, the upward attempts lose their strength.
This also explains why they still buy The modern whales, which we dealt with earlier, It was not enough to raise the price of XRP. Whales have increased their exposure, but persistent flows from ancient carriers still exceed this demand. Until long-term supply ceases to leave these categories, a single recession cannot cause a setback.
The price of XRP has to close above $2.28 to exit its range
The chart reflects the same push and pull. The price of XRP has been stuck between $2.28 and $1.81 since November 15 and has not produced a single daily close above $2.28. These remain the baseline that must be broken to build momentum. A successful move above $2.28 will open the next targets at $2.56 and $2.69, which are the areas where XRP reacted strongly to this at first.
A close below $1.98, however, would weaken the current structure and increase the chance of a return to $1.81.
For now, the message is clear. Stagnation at three months high Because used coins are at a minimum of three months, but long-term holders are still distributing. Until these convinced groups stabilize and a daily candle closes above $2.28, the XRP price remains in its range.
