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Bitcoin entered the last month of 2025 under massive fear. Many investors gave up because they could no longer bear the growing losses. The data, however, indicates that a significant opportunity is open.
The Bitcoin yield index has reached an all-time high. This development holds great importance in the current market context.
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Main points of the article
The Bitcoin Capitulation Index reflects the level of “pain” investors are experiencing.
The developers built this indicator using the Cost Baseline Distribution (CBD). CBD shows the total supply of digital tokens based on the average purchase price of each address. It also allows analysts to track changes in supply and investor sentiment over time.
When investors suffer significant losses, they often give up and aggressively sell their holdings. These periods usually coincide with the formation of local lows. It helps identify potential reversal points as bidding moves from “weak hands” to “strong hands.”
Historical data shows that the peaks in this indicator (marked in red on the chart) usually coincide with the price level (marked in black). This model appeared in the third quarter of 2024 and again in the second quarter of 2025.
Recently, the capitulation index has risen to an all-time high. Many analysts are now watching With great interest. They expect a strong reversal in the price of Bitcoin towards the end of the year.
said analyst Vivek Sen “The Bitcoin capitulation index just hit an all-time high! The last time this happened, the price jumped 50%. Are you ready for a new all-time high?”.
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In addition, the market capitalization of stablecoins started to decrease It will rise again after four consecutive weeks of decline. This renewed growth reinforces the bullish outlook. Since stablecoins provide essential liquidity to the market, this rebound may indicate that investors are preparing to buy the dip.
Main points of the article
The challenge with this indicator was the inability to indicate the exact moment a reversal would occur.
The capitulation index increased twice in Q3 2024 before Bitcoin found a bottom. It still needed three increases in the second quarter of 2025 before the market reversed. If the index calms down and increases again, The price of Bitcoin may fall further.
In his latest analysis, legendary trader Peter Brandt suggested… A price increase from the bottom of $50,000 to above $200,000.
Peter Brandt said what you do “The history of Bitcoin bull market cycles is one of exponential decline. Whether you agree or not, you have to deal with it. If the current decline continues to $50k, the next bull market cycle should bring it to $200k to $250K.”
Brandt emphasized the concept of “exponential decay,” where growth rates decline exponentially over time. This trend reflects the maturity of Bitcoin as an asset.
In simpler terms, if Bitcoin reverses and enters a new bull run, the increase could be four to five times the bottom. The market may not see similar explosive gains for previous courses.
