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On December 1, 2025, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will officially end quantitative easing (QT), freezing its balance sheet at $6.57 trillion after withdrawing $2.39 trillion from the system.
Analysts point to similarities with 2019, when the last stage of QT was accompanied by a significant bottom in altcoins and a growth in Bitcoin. With the return of liquidity and interest rates already reduced to 3.75-4.00%, the cryptocurrency markets are preparing for a potential upward shift.
Fed Ends Quantitative Easing Tomorrow – Cryptocurrencies Eye 2019-Style Liquidity Boost
come on The Federal Reserve has stopped accelerating its budget Given the restrictions on bank reserves, which are now about $3 trillion, or about 10% of US GDP. The spot reverse refinancing facility, which absorbed $2.5 trillion of excess liquidity, fell to near zero, removing a key liquidity buffer.
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October 2025 saw the secured overnight funding rate rise to 4.25%, exceeding the Fed’s target range. The Perpetual Repurchase Facility recorded a one-day activation of $18.5 billion, reflecting ongoing liquidity demand.
FOMC minutes from October 29 reveal For operational adjustments aimed at improving policy transfer.
“The Committee decided to end tapering of general securities on December 1,” read an excerpt from the Fed’s October 29 statement.
This means that QT will officially expire on December 1st, and the Fed will stop letting its securities mature without reinvesting. From that day on, the balance will no longer go down.
The committee noted that downside risks to employment have increased, although unemployment remains low and inflation is “rather high”.
Analysts note that this represents a long-term change: the Perpetual Repo Facility, initially an emergency tool, now serves as a permanent daily liquidity provider, effectively integrating the Fed into the operations of the Treasury markets.
Researcher Shanka Anselm describes this period as “the permanent repo era,” a structural transformation with lasting implications for global finance.
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The historical similarity and its implications for the cryptocurrency market
Cryptocurrency analysts are making direct comparisons with August 2019, when… The Fed ended the QT Altcoins have touched.
While past performance is no guarantee, key indicators support cautious optimism:
- The dominance of Bitcoin less than 60%
- Global money supply M2 increases, and historically leads to a rise in Bitcoin after 10-12 weeks.
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May result in QT prolongation Injecting liquidity that amounts to $ 95 billion per monthwhich supports large-cap cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and BNB.
Recent record highs in the price of gold It provides more correlation, as Bitcoin typically lags gold price movements by about 12 weeks.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting is being held on December 10 under unusual circumstances:
It exceeds the US federal debt $36 trillionwith annual interest costs exceeding $1 trillion. The permanent recovery facility now allows the rapid realization of financial guarantees, which represents a structural change with long-term market implications.
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Some cryptocurrency analysts expect an immediate rally after the end of QT, while others see a mini altcoin season in 2-3 months and a larger market cycle in 2027-2028.
Everyone agrees on this Liquidity, rather than Bitcoin noise or forkshas historically been the driving force behind cryptocurrency cycles.
December 1st marks a critical turning point as the Fed’s liquidity turn may remove a large drag on risky assets. The move could provide a step for crypto markets to respond, whether through a small rally or the first stages of a broader supercycle.
While the QT expires on December 1, the Federal Reserve emphasized that future adjustments to the federal funds rate will depend on incoming data and changing economic risks.
This indicates that the Fed is keeping monetary policy flexible, ready to adjust rates or other measures if necessary.
Investors should monitor interest rate guidance, treasury liquidity operations, and M2 money supply trends in the coming weeks.
