Physical Address
304 North Cardinal St.
Dorchester Center, MA 02124
The price of Bitcoin in December is now the main focus, given that the market ended November on a weak note. Bitcoin has fallen more than 17% this month, breaking the usual November trend and raising questions about whether the recent $80,000 bounce is the real bottom.
December had a mixed story for Bitcoin, and the first data for the year show some caution in spot flows and signals on the chain. This analysis examines three main areas: seasonal performance, ETF flows, and insights from price charts and chain analysis regarding the coming month.
Bitcoin’s December history and what ETF flows reveal
It’s usually not December Strong month for Bitcoin. The long-term average return is 8.42%, but the median return is only 1.69%. The last four years also show mixed results, with three negative Decembers.
November added more caution. Instead of repeating its strong seasonal pattern, Bitcoin ended the month more than 17% lower.
Sponsored
Sponsored
Want more ideas about currencies? Subscribe to Editor Harsh Notaria’s daily cryptocurrency newsletter here.
ETF flows reflect this caution. November closed with net flows of -$3.48 billion via US spot ETFs. The last multi-month net outflow streak occurred between April and July.
Since then, flows have been inconsistent, and November confirmed that institutions remain defensive.
MEXC senior analyst Sean Young told BeInCrypto that stronger and more sustained demand for exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is needed before any noticeable recovery can begin:
He stated: “Among the clearest indicators of an upcoming Bitcoin rally will be a renaissance in risk sentiment, improving liquidity conditions, and the depth of the market… When Bitcoin ETF spots begin to see several days of $200-300 million flows, it could signal that institutional allocators are returning to BTC and the next phase of the rally is in the rally.
Hunter Rogers, co-founder of TerraHash, added that the December installation remains subdued even after the drop in November:
He said he doesn’t expect a very volatile December — no big jump, no big drop. A quieter month with a slow upward movement seems more realistic. If ETFs run smoothly and volatility remains low, Bitcoin could provide a small positive surprise. But this still seems like a repair phase.
Seasonal and cash flow data for index funds show that December could be cautious unless demand for index funds rises sharply.
Sponsored
Sponsored
Chained metrics still show weak conviction
The data on the Bitcoin chain also does not correspond to what a confirmed December fund is typical. Two major signals tell the same story: whales are still sending coins to exchanges, and long-term holders in distribution mode.
The stock’s equity ratio – which measures the amount of total inflows from the 10 largest portfolios – rose from 0.32 earlier this month to 0.68 on November 27.
Even after the decrease to 0.53, it is still in an area that historically reflects the willingness of whales to sell, not to collect. Strong lows rarely form when this ratio remains high for several weeks.
The change in net owner position, which tracks long-term investor behavior, remains in the red. These portfolios have reduced their positions for more than six months. Bitcoin’s recent bull run began after the value turned green in late September – a milestone it has yet to achieve.
Until the long-term holders stop sending coins back into circulation, it becomes difficult to sustain a sustained rally.
Sean believes that real transformation only begins when the long-term sellers are removed:
Sponsored
Sponsored
He emphasized that the demonstration can begin when the original sellers stop moving the coins to the exchanges, the accumulation of whales turns positive, and the liquidity of the market begins to increase in the main places.
Hunter Rogers echoed this sentiment, linking any trend reversal to cleaner supply behavior by miners and long-term portfolios:
He stated that when the long holders move quietly in the accumulation, it means that the supply pressure dissipates.
So far, none of the trends have reversed. Whales continue to send coins to exchanges, and long-term holders continue to distribute. Together, this suggests that the price of Bitcoin in December may prove a deeper test before any attempt at a strong recovery.
Bitcoin price is now at a point where any small movement could set the tone for December. The general trend remains bearish, and the structure of the chart confirms what the ETF and the data on the chain have already indicated.
BTC recently fell below the lower band of the bear flag pattern That has been building for weeks. This breakout suggests a possible extension to $66,800, although the market may not reach that level immediately if liquidity remains stable.
For December, the first major line to watch is $80,400. That level served as a retracement zone earlier in the month, but remains fragile.
Sponsored
Sponsored
A clean close below $80,400 opens up the space for new lows, in line with what Sean Young believes is still a “possible liquidity sweep.”
Here is what he had to say in an exclusive segment, which also offers some hope for the market:
The market setup for Bitcoin is believed to indicate a liquidity scan of the candlestick pattern, rather than a prolonged collapse.
On the upside, the structure flips only if BTC regains $97,100 – half of the largest setup of the bar and flag pattern. A daily close above that zone will break the breakout in the bear flag pattern and initiate a move toward resistance near $101,600.
Hunter also noted that the retracement of higher trend levels only matters if volume increases with it. He said:
He stated that if Bitcoin stays above the breakout zone and volume improves, then the market may begin to see that zone as a solid floor.
For December, the breakout zone is between $93,900 and $97,100, where the chart, the ETF and the data on the chain will move from defense to support.
Until the arrival of these confirmations, the downward trend remains more pronounced than the upward trend. A deeper Bitcoin price retest will continue if ETF flows accelerate or if whales continue to send coins to exchanges.
Currently, the price of Bitcoin starts in December with the underlying cryptocurrency standing between two crucial walls – $80,400 as the final defensive plan, and $97,137 as the ceiling that can reset the momentum.
