What to expect from the price of XRP in December 2025

The price of XRP began December after a weak November, with the token falling almost 13% during the month. December has often seen strong on paper due to the exceptional event in 2017, but recent years have shown more subdued returns.

With rising ETF inflows, long-term holders selling, and XRP trading near a key resistance zone, traders will want to see if December could offer a clearer setup. This analysis looks at the seasonal history of XRP, the behavior of the chain, and which levels matter most.

December Date and XRP ETF Momentum: A Mixed Bag?

At first glance, December appears to be a strong month for XRP, with an average increase of around 69.6%. But the median return is -3.16%, which shows that the increase of +818% in 2017 inflates the long-term average.

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A more realistic comparison comes from recent years, with an increase of 6.94% in 2024 and 1.62% in 2023.

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November 2025 was a weak month. XRP is down nearly 13%, causing traders to wonder if December’s positive seasonal effect still applies.

Ray Youssef, CEO of NoOnes, believes that this December may behave differently due to institutional demand Now active via ETF. He told BeInCrypto:

“December will probably look very different for XRP this year, especially because institutional demand has now arrived … XRP enters the month driven by the momentum generated by the ETF excitement, which generated significant institutional and formal interest from the beginning,” he said.

He also noted that XRP is already in a multi-day ETF flow chain totaling more than $640 million and added:

“Now the sustainability of ETF flows is likely to be the main driver of the XRP price movement in December,” he believes.

However, he remains cautious, explains Joseph. He warns:

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“If the overall market environment weakens further and the ETF reverses, Ripple will likely follow the movements of bitcoin and ether and test $2,” Youssef said.

Together, the ETF’s mixed December history and new momentum suggest that Ripple’s December performance is largely dependent on continued institutional demand.

The signs on the chain are not the most optimistic

The XRP chain image does not support StrongDecember yet. Long-term holders – especially those in the 1-3 year group – continue to reduce their balances.

This data comes from HODL Waves, which shows how supply is distributed over different holding periods. In the past month, the group of 1-2 years fell from 9.72% to 8.516%, and the group of 2-3 years went from 14.80% to 14.251%.

These changes may seem small, but they are important because these groups hold a large part of the circulating supply. Selling weakens any upside attempt.

Rey is also wary of this behavior. He explained:

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“These long-term holders still control a disproportionate share of the circulating supply … XRP can post significant gains in December only if institutional demand remains strong enough to offset any selling pressure from long-term holders,” Rhee said.

The base increases the costs of the same risks. The strongest supply group shows between $2,445 and $2,460, where there are about 1.749 billion XRP.

This is exactly the area that first acted as resistance. Even if the ETF inflows continue strong, the price of xrp must break through this wall to form a clean uptrend.

Together, the long-term dividend package and the heavy foundation package explain why the XRP price in December needed a big push to gain momentum.

XRP price in December: key levels and the most realistic scenario

Commerce The price of the digital currency XRP Close to $2,196, above the second level of the jump from $1,772. This forms a clear double bottom structure – a rebound in October and another in late November.

The pattern supports a short-term recovery attempt, but XRP should cross $2,307 and then the key breakout level at $2,459. This level goes perfectly with the heat packs of the cost foundation.

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A clean day close above $2,459 allows the next area close to $2,612. This is in line with the Fibonacci level 0.618, the Cost Foundation Pack and the opinion of Ray Youssef. As he said:

“A more realistic target for December is $2.60. A net break above $2.60 would be the first strong signal of an upward turn,” he suggested.

Technical and fundamental targets are at $2.60-2.61.

If ETF flows weaken and Bitcoin and Ethereum decline, XRP may follow the overall market. Youssef said:

“If BTC and ETH suffer another pullback in December, XRP will likely follow,” he said.

If this happens, the key area to follow is $2,119. A close below that support at $1,772 exposes it again.

At this point, the price of XRP in December waits between two paths. It could drive continued demand for ETFs Break above $2.459 and then $2.60-2.61.

Without them, the price of XRP will probably be tied to the trend of Bitcoin and visit the lower bands.