Bitcoin below $80,000: Will the payment data block the path to $120,000?

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Bitcoin is currently trading below the level of $ 80,000, which is in line with the release of US nonfarm payrolls data on Friday, which recorded a significant and surprising decrease. The increase in employment in April was only 62,000 jobs compared to 172,000 in March. This deterioration in the labor market generally indicates strengthening expectations of US Federal policy changes, which encourage… Goods High risk of rising.

There is something about the labor market:

In February, US employers cut -448,000 jobs, the largest monthly drop since July 2020.

Then, in March, US employers increased employment by +655,000 MoM, the largest monthly increase, except during the 2020 pandemic.

Like… pic.twitter.com/8m3x8qBWfp

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 7, 2026

However, an immediate problem became apparent; Average hourly wages rose 3.8% year-over-year, beating the previous estimate of 3.5%. This growth in wages keeps inflation alive and in part prevents the Fed from moving.

The idea of ​​Bitcoin reaching $120,000 requires cooperation from both sides of this equation; On the one hand, a weak labor market paves the way by showing the Fed the ability to hold or cut rates, which raises the price of risky assets and reduces access to BTC. But on the other hand, the growth of the minimum wage closes this path.

The impact of the data on Bitcoin’s demand for $120,000

The economic logic here is clear; This decline in hiring strengthens the argument that the US labor market is cooling too fast for the Fed to tighten too much. Markets are pricing in interest rate stability until 2026, and this weak data could push expectations for any future interest rate hikes, representing a reversal in favor of a conservative monetary policy.

For Bitcoin, this attraction mechanism is straightforward; Expectations of lower interest rates put pressure on the dollar and lower returns on competing assets, which have been linked to Bitcoin’s accumulation by institutions. The events of August 2025 are proof of this, when the job data (which recorded only 22,000 jobs) pushed the price of Bitcoin in the past $ 113,000 when the possibility of a cut rose to full certainty.

From a technical point of view, Bitcoin’s current status is to be respected. Alex Kubtsikevich, Senior Market Analyst at FxPro, explains the technology:

Bitcoin has left its 200-day moving average after slowly entering the high price zone near the upper limit of its upward trend, while the lower limit of the trend is close to $77,500, and breaking the whole pattern would require a drop below the level of $75,000.

Payroll growth: A change the market can’t ignore

The annual growth rate of 3.8% is a “hit” in the data channel that would be good for Bitcoin. Payments at this level support inflation, the most stable component of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket, giving the Fed legal cover to keep interest rates high for longer, despite weak jobs numbers.

Here the path of influence goes in the wrong direction for Bitcoin; An increase in wages increases labor costs, which causes oil prices to rise, which prevents the Fed from changing policy. When currencies fail to move, interest rates remain high and the dollar remains supported, which forces the risk associated with a non-yielding asset like Bitcoin.

As long as the growth of wages remains above 3.5%, the imbalance will remain in the dual control of the Fed (both labor and price stability), and this tension will reduce the ability of the markets to be cheap in the strong sleeping groups.

The Coinbase premium Index was in the red at the end of April as the price of Bitcoins continued to rise.

Traditional distribution from retail outlets and agencies.

Red area means organizations and large consumers are selling energy for one week.

It is now slowly returning to… pic.twitter.com/YLkLVm2SDk

– Jeremy (@Jeremybtc) May 7, 2026

Adds a change to the “Premium Index” of Bitcoin in Coinbase At the counter this week is another part of the warning. This indicator measures the price difference between Coinbase and foreign platforms such as Binance; A green rating indicates the importance of American corporations, while a minus indicates the opposite. The move above $80,000 was stopped exactly where this price ended.

Singapore-based firm QCP Capital summarized the risks of capital investment:

If oil prices fail to fall in the minutes of the FOMC on May 20, when Brent is already above $100 per barrel, with 97% market expectations that things will not return to normal in the Strait of Hormuz by May 15, the phenomenon of stagflation will be difficult to ignore.

Stagflation is considered the worst economic environment for the Bitcoin economy as the most dangerous thing.

A note Bitcoin below $80,000: Will the payment data block the path to $120,000? appeared for the first time Cryptonews Arabic.

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