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About 9 million BTC – that is, about 45-46% of what is in circulation – is currently working at a loss, the limits that have been leading before or the capture of violence or the opening of the collection window late.
The last time this measure touched similar levels was in January 2023, in the middle of the crash of the FTX platform, when price consolidation followed instead of rapid changes.
Whether the current setup will resolve in the same way or break apart is a question that each trader is responsible for Bitcoin To answer now.
Important points:
- To read the scale: About 9 million BTC (45-46% of supply) is lying “under water,” with short owners holding $113.9 billion in unrealized losses.
- History: Similar readings appeared in January 2023 (post-FTX), mid-2022, and mid-2018 – each preceded by another decline of 25% or more before settling.
- Current price: Bitcoin is trading around $65,200-$66,689, about 47% below its all-time high in October 2025 above $126,000.
- Important fields: $63,000 is the bottom you can’t break; $69,000 is the target price for one-month holders and represents the first significant resistance.
- Observations: Weekly ETF movements, whale wallet activity, and whether the Bitcoin Impact Index (currently 57.4) will move further into the “High Impact” zone.
When half the show is underwater… history sends a clear message
The most focused metric is the contribution-to-loss ratio – where any currency whose last move on the Internet was at a higher price than today’s price is considered “underwater”.
At current levels near $65,200, the group has risen to nearly 9 million BTCwith peaks near 10 million BTC recorded at recent lows. Long-term holders (funds that have not moved for six months) have 4.6 million BTC – 30% of their total holdings – in the red, marking their biggest loss since 2023.
Previous cases tell a consistent story; In the middle of 2018, the corresponding reading of the loss was preceded by another fall of 50% to the low of December of $ 3,200.
Mid-2022 saw the same sign appear before falling below $17,500. January 2023 was what confirmed the order – the signal appeared, but the forced selling exhausted itself, and the market recovered without a second closure. The difference that was important in 2023 is the lack of energy and high sales, and this difference is still here.
“When a large part of the product is unprofitable, the markets enter capitulation zones or areas of slow accumulation,” CryptoQuant researchers said, raising important debates as to who is in control of the selling side – forced investors or sick collectors. Currently, the data leans towards the first method.
Is the current trend in Bitcoin related to the price going down or falling?
Bitcoin ETFs (place ETFs) have seen net outflows of $3 billion since the beginning of the year, with average investors entering the fixed price at $83,956 – representing a book loss of 23% at current prices.
ETF participants alone sold more than 600 BTC per day last week. The exit of the risk-taking fund is adding to the already tense picture of the network, where whales unloaded more than 43,000 BTC last week.
The Bitcoin Impact Index has reached 57.4, entering what Checkonchain says are “high impact areas” associated with large price movements in both directions.
A group of one-month holders has a known price of around $69,000; While the group of those who have 1-3 months is close to $90,000 – all these sectors are acting as barriers instead of support.
Glassnode’s Sean Rose noted that “persistent losses rather than peak sales” were the hallmark of this pullback, which was seen gradually from the October peak at $126,000 to $100,000, $90,000 and $80,000 without a single day of panic trading.
Right now, it all depends on the flow and the amount of problems the market can take; Because if the demand for ETFs turns back in strong inflows, at around $500 million per week, and the whales continue to buy on the weakness, that will start to tighten again and give Bitcoin a real chance to regain the level of $69,000 and push up from there.
But the most realistic setup at the moment is still low, the price is between $ 63K and $ 69K while the market is working to recover all the losses, there is no slow closing, just a slow grind and a vague movement.
The danger point is at $63k, because if this level is broken on a daily basis, it can cause further destruction, especially from those who have a short time, and here the downward path can be opened as soon as more supply is forced to the market.
Look at weekly ETF data as a leading indicator – it leads the stock price BTC More reliably than any other network metric in the last six months. Every single week that witnesses an increase of more than $1 billion is a clear indication of what is happening. Any surge in whale outflows beyond the current level of 43,000 BTC per week is a sign of trouble.
The six months of stable conditions that led to the loss count didn’t come with a single scare, and that’s what makes the election season so difficult. The market may need a commitment date that it does not get.
A note Bitcoin is at a crossroads: 9 million BTC is lost, so the surrender is near? appeared for the first time Cryptonews Arabic.
