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Start your day with the US Morning Crypto News Brief – your essential summary of the most important cryptocurrency developments for the day ahead.
Grab your coffee — even as the headlines scream wars, oil shocks and AI anxiety, one Wall Street strategist says the panic may already be cheap. Under the volatility of February, a quieter change may take shape as March tests if fear has overcome reality.
Today’s Cryptocurrency News: March Could Be the Market’s Turning Point, Says Tom Lee
With high Geopolitical tensions As investors analyze the volatility of February, Tom Lee takes a contrary position: March could see a decisive rebound in stocks and cryptocurrencies.
The head of research at Fundstraat Global Advisors believes that markets are once again reacting to headlines rather than fundamentals.
in spite Fear of the escalation of the conflict In the Middle East and the renewed volatility of oil, it was clear to me that history is trending towards flexibility, not withdrawal.
In a recent television appearance, he told me He believes that March will likely be a bullish monthdefying the prevailing caution that followed February’s weakness.
Markets often underperform when fear peaks
Lee’s thesis is based on a model prevalent in the markets: Stocks tend to sell off As geopolitical tension rises, only to recover after uncertainty reaches its peak.
Although the increase in volatility confused investors, Lee did not see a structural deterioration in the US economy. In previous geopolitical situations, markets often stabilized when worst-case scenarios did not materialize.
In his speech he referred to me Until the worst of the sale happens this weekexplaining that risk premiums can already reflect high anxiety.
His view is that the decline in February was more a result of sentiment than systemic pressure, which set the stage for a rebound in March.
Oil shock, not a recession trigger
Keep energy markets at the center of investors’ minds. The increase in crude oil prices It threatens to impact supply chains, increase pressure on consumers, and revive fears of inflation.
Lee did not ignore the inflationary effect. He noted that oil touches almost every corner of the global economy. But historically, oil shocks have often pushed economies into recession only when growth was already weak.
This is not the situation we are in now,” he stressed.
Lee sees the rise in oil prices as a temporary price shock rather than a sign of an impending decline. Although this may put pressure on consumer morale and psychology in an environment highly sensitive to inflation, I do not believe that this will undermine the fundamentals of US economic growth.
Dovish Federal Reserve?
Crucially, Lee shows that energy-driven volatility can push policymakers to move in a more accommodative direction.
Instead of an explanation High oil prices as a pretext to tighten monetary policyLee suggests that the Fed may move toward easing if the cost of energy threatens economic activity. This is in line with recent assurances from former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
According to Lee, policy makers will be more likely to prefer to protect growth from risks instead of mechanically reacting to inflation numbers. This echoes recent statements by economics professor Steve Hanke when he spoke to BeInCrypto.
Hanke told BeInCrypto that the prices of goods move and are linked to the prices of other goods, services and the like, but it depends on what central banks do because all inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.
This scenario, if realized, could provide a supportive backdrop for risk assets during the spring.
Cryptocurrencies are in the “final stages” of the bottom
Lee expands his reversion hypothesis to include digital assets in addition to stocks. He believes that software stocks, the “Big Seven”, and cryptocurrencies are in the “final stages” of bottom formation.
While recognizing that the market is still going through what many describe as… Cryptocurrency winterLee aims to strengthen the foundations below the surface.
On Ether, Lee argues that increased tokenization activity, including the ongoing launch of tokenized funds, creates long-term value.
It is believed that if economic activities move more and more into the Ether network, an increase in prices will eventually follow, once capital returns from traditional hard assets such as Gold and silver.
In short, Lee sees the current gap between prices and fundamental developments as temporary.
Is it a fear of growth or just a risk premium?
Concerns about widening credit spreads and private credit pressures have fueled discussions about the fear of a wider slowdown in growth. However, Lee remains unconvinced.
It points to indicators such as truck rejection rates as evidence that the economy may be stabilizing or even accelerating instead of contracting.
He explained that for him, February felt “worse than he already was”. Markets, which fell slightly during the month, faced a rising risk premium rather than a collapse of fundamentals.
If Lee is right, March may challenge the prevailing narrative, arriving “like a bear” but leaving like a bull.
Today’s chart
This chart shows the S&P 500 (black line) maintaining relative stability during the second half of February while the VIX (blue line) sees sharp fluctuations, including a notable spike at the end of the month.
When the VIX rises, it reflects the increased demand for downside protection, that is, increasing investor anxiety.
However, in this case, despite the increasing volatility, the S&P 500 did not collapse by the same amount. This indicates that the risk premium has developed faster than the actual damage to the prices.
Alpha is a byte size
Here is a summary of the most prominent cryptocurrency news from the United States to follow today:
Overview of Crypto actions before the market opens
| Company | Closed until March 2nd | Overview before the market opens |
| Strategies (MSTR) | $137.65 | $132.77 (-3.55%) |
| Coinbase (COIN) | $185.24 | $177.99 (-3.91%) |
| Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) | $21.73 | $20.65 (-4.97%) |
| Mara Holdings (MARA) | $9.45 | $9.03 (-4.44%) |
| Riot Platforms (RIOT) | $16.43 | $15.86 (-3.47%) |
| Core Scientific (CORZ) | $16.49 | $15.99 (-3.03%) |
