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The price of Ethereum enters March after a brutal February that saw losses of almost 20%. ETH has now recorded six consecutive red months starting in September 2025, an unprecedented streak in the token’s history. If March ends in reverse, it will extend to seven months, cementing this as the longest sustained decline Ethereum has ever seen.
While March has historically brought an average return of around 9% for ETH, the current situation suggests that history may not provide much guidance. Here’s what the data shows.
The weekly chart has already collapsed
Even February 2025, which saw a drop of 32%, saw an immediate recovery attempt in the following months. This time, the selling was merciless, and the weekly chart explains why. Six consecutive months of red, with the exception of March (which was just formed), is not an easy fact to get out of the ground.
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Since April 7, 2025, it is commercial Ethereum price Within a head and shoulders pattern. It is a bearish reversal structure where a central high (the head) is surrounded by two lower highs (the shoulders). The split was confirmed at the beginning of January 2026, and it was not a simple drop. It was a structural break.
A deliberate move from this model expects a decrease of about 53% from the breakdown line, targeting around $1,320. Although this level has not yet been reached, the model is still active and unresolved.
To make matters worse, two additional bearish crosses are forming on the weekly Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), smoothing the price data to highlight the direction of the trend.
The 50-period EMA is close to the 100-period MA, while the 20-period EMA is close to the 200-period MA. The last confirmed crossover – when the EMA 20 crossed below the EMA 50 in early January – preceded a 46% correction.
If these new crosses confirm, reinforce the downtrend on the higher time frame.
Ethereum ETF flows do not offer an institutional limit
Unlike Bitcoin, where ETF spot flows are constantly decreasing, The image of Ethereum ETFsDeteriorate. February recorded $369.87 million in net inflows – up from $353.20 million in January. This trend reversed the improvement that had briefly given hope when outflows contracted in January compared to $616.82 million in December.
This represents four consecutive months of outflow since November 2025, when $1.42 billion has flown out. The last month of positive flow was October 2025 with $569.92 million.
For the price of Ethereum, this means that there is no institutional demand base that forms as March approaches. The capital backing ETH via ETF channels is retreating along the way, and unlike Bitcoin, the bleeding is not slowing down.
Parliament officials have to buy, but the plot has become more complicated
Under this negative situation, a measure stands out on the chain. Wallets holding Ethereum for 155 days or more than 155 days of Ethereum have increased dramatically. On February 21, Hodler’s net position change index was +6,829 ETH. By March 1, it had risen to +252,142 ETH, a massive 3,500% rally that on the surface looks like a strong conviction.
But the context complicates this reference. Hodler’s last significant buying period began on December 26, 2025, when the price of Ethereum was around $2,920. It continued to accumulate with the price rising to $3,350 from January 14. Then the weekly transition to pure profits began, and the price began to fall sharply. Hodlers continued to buy during the downturn. Its net position became negative only on February 2, when the price had already fallen to $2,340.
Many of these insects are likely to be trapped between $2,340 and $3,350. The current increase in the purchase may not represent a new conviction for improvement, but rather an attempt to decline and spread even in the price. Individual investors should be careful not to blindly follow this signal – the purchase may be motivated by survival rather than strategy.
But there is a reason you buy; Key Ethereum price levels to watch
If the Hodlers are trapped, why increase exposure now, in a weak market? The 12 hour chart may be the answer.
Between February 12 and February 28, the price of Ethereum recorded a lower low, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) – a momentum oscillator – recorded a higher low. This constitutes a bullish variation, a sign of weak selling momentum even as the price declines. This divergence has already led to a rebound The price of Ethereum has increased Up about 11.7% from its lowest levels.
More importantly, this rebound forms a reversal head and shoulders pattern on the 12-hour chart; Bullish reversal structure. This is likely what the Hoadlers are after – a short-term breakthrough that could help them recoup losses from the January trap. The technical setup is true, and the RSI divergence is already verified by the initial bounce.
The neck is about $2,160-2,180. If the price of Ethereum closes above this level, the measured move predicts an increase of about 19%, targeting around $2,590. Before that, the Fibonacci extension levels at $2,050 and $2,400 would have acted as intermediate resistance zones.
On the upside, a drop below $1,830 weakens the head and shoulders reversal indicator. A close below $1,790 completely invalidates the rebound thesis, and the weekly Head and Shoulders indicator takes control – bringing the $1,320 target into focus.
The most likely route is March Mirrors Bitcoin Setup: A reversal attempt led by the 12-hour structure and the Hodler accumulation, followed by renewed pressure with the weekly trend remaining firmly.
The jump is real, but resists a much larger collapse.
