Cardano’s Bullish Divergence Started and Failed – Is the $540M Whale Sale the Reason?

Cardano price showed a typical bullish divergence pattern on the daily chart, then rose to 24%, then collapsed. The chain’s data revealed a coordinated exit from whales worth more than $540 million during the rally – even as the Money Flow Index confirmed that retail investors were actively buying the pullback.

Find out what happened, and what it means for the next one.

The daily RSI divergence has been triggered and the Liquidity Flow Index has confirmed the move

Between December 31, 2025 and February 24, 2026, the daily chart of ADA formed a bullish divergence. press Cardano Price A lower low between the end of December and the low of February 24th. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator, made a higher low.

When the price makes a lower low while the RSI makes a higher low, this indicates that the negative momentum is starting to weaken even as the price continues to fall.

The push came on February 25 when ADA rose by about 24%, temporarily touching $0.31 before registering a long upper shadow of a candle – a candlestick pattern indicative of aggressive selling at the tops.

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This model is made more interesting since it is supported by the movement of the Money Flow Index. The MFI is a volume-weighted momentum indicator that combines price and volume to measure buying and selling pressure, and is scored from 0 to 100. Unlike the RSI that only takes into account price, the IMF takes into account trading volume – making it more accurate in reflecting whether there is a real flow of capital in or out of an asset.

Between February 24 and February 28, the price and the IMF increased together. No negative divergence was seen in the IMF. This means that dips were bought firmly on strong trading volume, not just price increases on weak liquidity. There were those who actively ate the sales pressure.

Indicate that the RSI divergence is achieved. The Money Flow Index confirmed the presence of real buying support. ADA Coin jumped 24%. However, since that peak on February 25, the price has fallen by 17% in a few days. If the technical installation was correct and buying the dips was effective, what killed the recovery?

Distributed more than 2 billion ADA in 3 days: the whales were sellers

The answer appears on the string. Supply distribution data from Santiment reveal that between February 24 and 27, all major classes of whales declined at the same time.

Implemented class Whales that own over a billion ADAs The biggest single output. It sold about 1.02 billion coins in one day between February 24th and 25th – falling from 2.90 billion to 1.88 billion ADA.

The 100 million to 1 billion category initially bought on February 24, likely absorbing some of the early sales, but quickly reversed its trend from February 27, falling from 3.47 billion to 2.61 billion ADA – a reduction of about 860 million coins.

The category with between 10 million and 100 million reduced about 220 million ADA during the same period, falling from 13.90 billion to 13.68 billion. Even the smallest class of whales, those with 1 million to 10 million, fell from 5.69 billion to 5.64 billion, selling about 50 million coins.

A total of about 2.15 billion ADA was distributed to all four groups in just three days. At an average price of $0.27 during this period, this equates to concentrated selling pressure for a value of approximately $540 million – coinciding with a rebound in which people were actively buying.

Money Flow Index data reveals why this matters. The Money Flow Index confirmed the presence of real buying support. Whale data shows the source of the sale. Retail and mid-range addresses were absorbing the whale supply during the price increase, but a distribution value of $540 million in just 72 hours exceeded the demand to absorb.

Derivative data adds weight to the ADA breakdown

The derivatives market reinforces this picture. The number of open futures contracts on Cardano had already collapsed from its peak of $1.95 billion in September to less than $450 million in mid-February. This is one of the lowest levels of the year. This means that most of the leveraged sales traders were largely exited before the divergence in the technical indicators even appeared.

The RSI is most likely observed as a result of spot buying: individuals accumulate on the dip, using the RSI divergence as their motivation. But spot buying alone could not absorb the volume of distribution from the whales.

Cardano Price Action: New lows continue to be recorded, and the re-entry of whales becomes the main signal

The daily price structure of the ADA remains lower as of March 2 (compared to the end of December), trading at $0.27, while the RSI continues to record higher lows (again compared to the end of December). This means that the divergence framework is still technically valid, even after the failure at the end of February. A new swing low can trigger it again.

Mark on the side that $0.31 is the dividing line. This was the exact level of rejection on February 25th. A daily close above this level represents the first structural break to the downside, opening the way towards $0.37.

On the downside, it loses $0.26 confirming the weakness. Below this level, the $0.23 and $0.21 levels become crucial.

If the $0.21 level fails, deeper Fibonacci extensions to $0.18 (0.618) and $0.15 (0.786) appear as possible options.

But it should be considered that the most important variable for the next movement of Cardano is not a specific price level, but rather if the whales start buying again. Santimento’s data up to March 2 show that the major holders have not resumed significant accumulation.

If the ADA falls towards $0.21 or lower and the whale population starts to rebuild, as… I’ve done it beforeIt would be a much stronger setup than what happened in February. The moment when the whales go back to buy can be seen as a potential signal for a local fund.

For the success of the next divergence, whales will be involved as a confirmation instead of a contradiction. Until that happens, Cardano’s price structure could continue to point downward.​​​​