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Matt Hogan, chief investment officer of Bitwise, has denied accusations that trading firm Jane Street is behind the recent decline in Bitcoin prices, stressing in a post on the X platform that what is happening represents a traditional cold winter for digital currencies rather than a coordinated attack on the market.
His comments come as lawsuits and widespread discussion on social media have reignited concerns about market manipulation at a time when Bitcoin is trading more than 46% below its all-time high.
Speculation escalated after reports that the bankruptcy administrator of Terraform Labs filed a lawsuit against Jane Street in Manhattan federal court, accusing her of using inside information before the Terra-Luna system crashed in May 2022.
According to the complaint, minutes after Terraform withdrew 150 million tokens, Jane Street withdrew approximately 85 million units of TerraUSD from Curve 3pool, a move the lawsuit claims accelerated the collapse and wiped out approximately $40 billion in market value.
For its part, “Jane Street” denies the accusations and describes the case as a desperate attempt to recoup its losses and holds “Terraform” management accountable for the failure.
At the same time, some analysts in the digital currency field, including the “Bull Theory” account, claimed that “Jane Street” ran a selling algorithm at 10 a.m., aiming to put pressure on the price of Bitcoin and profit from derivatives.
The account also refers to an interim order issued by the Securities and Exchange Board of India accusing “Jane Street” affiliated entities of manipulating indices on contract expiry dates between January 2023 and March 2025 while illegally profiting billions of dollars.
The case is still pending and the company has appealed the decision.
Hogan rejected these claims and believed that the circulating theories were exaggerated, explaining that the decline in Bitcoin prices was due to investors liquidating buying positions, reducing leverage and diverting funds to other opportunities.
He also reposted an analysis of Bitcoin performance since the launch of the spot ETF in January 2024 by colleague “Andrei Dragosh”, which showed significant weakness in Bitcoin performance near midnight US East Coast time, contradicting claims of 10am pressure and suggesting that trading hours outside the US are most vulnerable to volatility.
Strategist Alex Krueger described the Jane Street Engagement Theory as a common but inaccurate narrative, explaining that gap traders and ETF Authorized Participants simply close the spread between funds, futures and spot markets as a natural mechanism within the market structure.
He added that historically, the spread of pessimistic rhetoric and the search for defendants have often coincided with the formation of price bottoms.
For Hogan, the explanation is much simpler:
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, a reset in leverage levels, and a shift in investor priorities are enough to explain the current decline.
He concluded by saying that what we are witnessing is the traditional winter of digital currencies, which is usually followed by a similar spring, which shows that the desire to hold someone accountable is understandable, but the reality is not as exciting as advertised.
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